TSMC Shares Hit Recovery High At 276.36 As Technicals Signal Continued Bullish Momentum

TSMC shares advanced 2.93% to close at 272.63 in the latest session, establishing a new recovery high near 276.36. The following technical analysis synthesizes multiple perspectives on the stock's trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns show strong bullish momentum, with the 2025-09-22 session forming a decisive white candle following a hammer reversal on 2025-09-18. Key resistance is now evident at 276.36 (recent high), while support emerges at 262.06-258.75 (consolidation zone from mid-September). The breakout above 268.64 (previous swing high) suggests continuation potential, though a close below 264.87 would invalidate this pattern.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately 235) remains below the 100-day SMA (near 225) and 200-day SMA (around 210), confirming the primary uptrend. Current price action maintains a healthy 15% premium above the 50-day SMA. A bullish golden cross materialized in early Q3 as the 50-day crossed above the 200-day, reinforcing the long-term trend strength. Near-term support resides near the 50-day SMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows bullish momentum with the histogram in positive territory since early September, though its advance slope has moderated recently. KDJ oscillators reflect overbought conditions (K:81, D:75, J:93), suggesting potential near-term consolidation. However, no bearish divergence is present as both price and momentum indicators make higher highs. Traders should monitor for KDJ crossovers below 80 as early caution signals.
Bollinger Bands
Price pierced the upper Bollinger Band (20-period, 2SD) at 276.36, indicating stretched near-term conditions. Bandwidth expansion from late August confirms increasing volatility. The +2SD level (approximately 275) now serves as resistance, while the 20-period midline (near 255) provides dynamic support. A reversion toward the 260-255 band would align with typical mean-reversion behavior after band penetration.
Volume-Price Relationship
The September rally shows validated strength, with above-average volume of 18.8M shares accompanying the 3.79% surge on 2025-09-10. Subsequent consolidation occurred on diminishing volume, while the latest breakout saw volume expansion (15.6M shares), confirming buyer conviction. However, volume on new highs remains below the 27.4M share climax seen in January's downturn, warranting vigilance for distribution patterns.
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI reads 72, approaching overbought territory. While historically the RSI has peaked near 80 during strong advances (notably in April), current levels suggest limited near-term upside without consolidation. Traders should note that RSI has maintained a rising trough pattern since June, coinciding with higher price lows - a constructive divergence from January's declining RSI peaks.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 172.28 (2025-05-06) and high of 276.36 (2025-09-22), key retracement levels emerge at 240.35 (23.6%), 227.06 (38.2%), and 216.32 (50%). Recent corrections have respected the 23.6% level, including the July pullback to 228.67. The 216.32 level now serves as major trend support. Current price action shows consolidation near the 161.8% extension level, which may attract profit-taking activity.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Strong confluence exists between Fibonacci support (240.35), the 50-day SMA (235), and volume-weighted average price anchors near 238 - creating a robust demand zone below the market. The only material divergence emerges between overbought oscillators (RSI/KDJ) and extended Bollinger Band positioning versus otherwise bullish price structure, suggesting near-term consolidation is likely before further upside. However, no technical evidence yet indicates trend reversal, with moving averages and MACD retaining bullish configurations.