TSMC cayó un 3,68 % a causa de tensiones geopolíticas y volatilidad en el sector de IA: ¿qué viene para el gigante de los chips?

Summary
• TSMC’s intraday price drops to $292.50, a 3.68% decline from its previous close of $304.85
• Janus Henderson’s Q3 2025 investor letter highlights TSMC as a top hedge fund holding
• TSMC’s $165B U.S. expansion and CHIPS Act subsidies draw geopolitical and market scrutiny
• Options chain shows bearish positioning, with 216 contracts for TSM20251219C300 trading at high leverage ratios

TSMC’s sharp intraday decline reflects a confluence of geopolitical risks, sector-specific headwinds, and shifting investor sentiment. The stock’s 52-week high of $313.98 now feels distant as the $292.50 level becomes a critical support. With the semiconductor sector under pressure from U.S.-China tensions and AI demand volatility, TSMC’s strategic U.S. expansion and hedge fund activity are key focal points for near-term traders.

Geopolitical and Sector Headwinds Overshadow TSMC’s Strategic U.S. Expansion
TSMC’s intraday selloff is driven by a mix of macroeconomic and sector-specific pressures. The company’s $165 billion U.S. expansion, while strategically sound, has intensified scrutiny over its reliance on government subsidies and geopolitical exposure. Recent news of Intel testing tools from ACM Research—a firm with sanctioned Chinese ties—has heightened concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities. Additionally, China’s $70 billion chip sector stimulus package and the U.S. easing of AI chip export restrictions to China have created uncertainty about TSMC’s long-term market share. The options chain reflects bearish positioning, with high-volume put spreads and leveraged call options indicating a volatile near-term outlook.

Semiconductor Sector Under Pressure as Intel Drags Down Industry Sentiment
The semiconductor sector is broadly underperforming, with Intel (INTC) leading the decline at -3.51% intraday. TSMC’s 3.68% drop aligns with the sector’s bearish momentum, driven by regulatory risks and AI demand volatility. Intel’s struggles with Chinese toolmakers and U.S. government scrutiny highlight systemic challenges for chipmakers reliant on global supply chains. TSMC’s U.S. expansion, while a strategic countermeasure, faces headwinds from sector-wide overcapacity and shifting policy dynamics.

Navigating TSMC’s Volatility: Technicals and Options for Short-Term Positioning
• MACD: 4.19 (bullish divergence from price action)
• RSI: 74.64 (overbought, suggesting potential reversal)
• 200-day MA: $230.65 (far below current price, indicating strong momentum)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $293.64, near the middle band ($289.79), signaling consolidation

TSMC’s technicals suggest a short-term consolidation phase after a sharp decline. The 200-day MA at $230.65 remains a critical long-term support level, while the RSI’s overbought condition hints at potential near-term pullbacks. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• TSM20251219C300
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $300
- Expiration: 2025-12-19
- IV: 31.50% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 99.84% (high)
- Delta: 0.3336 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.6698 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0266 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 788,238
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (strike above current price)
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make this call option ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a rebound above $300. The moderate IV and high turnover ensure liquidity.

• TSM20251219C302.5
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $302.50
Expiration: 2025-12-19
IV: 31.18% (moderate)
Leverage Ratio: 134.65% (very high)
Delta: 0.2694 (moderate sensitivity)
Theta: -0.5703 (rapid time decay)
Gamma: 0.0244 (high sensitivity)
Turnover: 365,139
Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (strike above current price)
Why it stands out: This contract offers the highest leverage ratio (134.65%) and strong gamma, making it a high-risk/high-reward play for traders anticipating a sharp rebound. The moderate IV and high turnover support its viability.

Trading Setup: Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $230.65 and the 52-week low of $134.25. A break below $292.50 could trigger further selling, while a rebound above $300 may attract short-term buyers. Given the sector’s volatility, a bearish bias is warranted unless TSMC closes above $304.28 (intraday high).

Backtest TSMC Stock Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has demonstrated a positive performance following a -4% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present. The backtest reveals that the 3-day win rate is 55.05%, the 10-day win rate is 53.20%, and the 30-day win rate is 58.76%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term after the intraday plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.55%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that TSM has the potential for significant gains in the months following the -4% drop.

TSMC at a Crossroads: Geopolitical Risks vs. AI-Driven Resilience
TSMC’s intraday selloff reflects a tug-of-war between its strategic U.S. expansion and sector-wide headwinds. While the company’s $165 billion investment and CHIPS Act subsidies position it as a geopolitical linchpin, near-term volatility is likely to persist due to AI demand fluctuations and regulatory scrutiny. The semiconductor sector’s underperformance, led by Intel’s -3.51% decline, underscores the fragility of current market dynamics. Traders should monitor the $292.50 support level and the 200-day MA at $230.65 for directional clues. For now, a cautious approach is prudent, with options like TSM20251219C300 offering high-leverage exposure to potential rebounds. Watch for a breakdown below $292.50 or a surge in AI sector news to dictate next steps.