TSLA Options Signal Bullish Frenzy: 490-Call OI Surpasses Puts as FSD Hype and Morgan Stanley Bear Case Collide

• TSLA surges 2.09% to $448.77, trading above 30D/200D moving averages and Bollinger Upper Band ($463.26).
• Options market shows 0.84 put/call open interest ratio, with $490C (OI: 21,360) and $500C (OI: 18,522) as top this-week calls.
• Morgan Stanley downgrades to $425 PT, while Piper Sandler cites FSD progress as "very close" to unsupervised autonomy.
• Block trades reveal $3.8M call sweep at TSLA20250919C380 and $1.9M put block at TSLA20251003P415.

Bullish OI Clusters and Bearish Shadows in Options Data

The options market is split between FSD euphoria and valuation skepticism. This Friday’s $490C and $500C calls (combined OI: 39,882) suggest aggressive bets on a $450+ breakout, while next-week’s $960C (OI: 43,823) hints at speculative moonshot plays. Yet put open interest totals 3.6M vs. 4.3M calls—a 0.84 ratio—showing bears aren’t entirely sidelined. The $160P (OI: 43,887) and $260P (OI: 39,226) puts, though extreme strikes, reflect tail-risk hedging.

Block trades add intrigue. A $3.8M sweep of TSLA20250919C380 (expiring Sept 19) and $1.365M call block at TSLA20250919C400 suggest institutional positioning for a mid-2025 rally. But the $933,750 put block at TSLA20251003P415 (expiring Oct 3) implies some players are bracing for a pullback before FSD’s Sept/Aug test phase.

FSD Optimism vs. Valuation Realism

Piper Sandler’s FSD analysis—20x improvement in disengagement metrics—fuels bullish sentiment, especially with $500 price targets lingering in the options chain. But Morgan Stanley’s downgrade to $425 PT (now 6.6% below current price) highlights risks: regulatory delays, EV margin pressures, and subsidy cuts in China/U.S. The stock’s 210x forward P/E is already pricing in a "ChatGPT Moment" for robotaxi—success is expected, failure could trigger a re-rating to hardware multiples (~$300).

Consumer perception matters too. While FSD v14.2.x allows smoother parking and reduced driver monitoring, legal gray areas around "texting while driving" could slow adoption. Retail traders might be buying calls on FSD hype, while institutions are hedging with puts or shorting the 210x multiple.

Actionable Trades for TSLA’s Volatile CrossroadsOptions Play: Buy-to-open TSLA20251212C490 (this Friday’s $490 call) if price breaks above $452.39 intraday high. With 21,360 OI, this strike could see liquidity if the $450 level holds. For longer-term exposure, consider TSLA20251219C500 (next Friday’s $500 call) as a leveraged play on FSD’s Sept/Aug progress.Stock Play: Buy TSLA near $431.28 (30D support) if price retests after a pullback. Target $463.26 (Bollinger Upper Band) as a short-term ceiling, with a hard stop below $429.73 (30D support). For bears, short near $452.39 with a tight stop above $455 to capture profit-taking if Morgan Stanley’s $425 PT gains traction.Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA sits at a crossroads: FSD’s technical progress vs. EV industry headwinds, and AI hype vs. hardware fundamentals. The options data shows a 70%+ conviction in bullish bets, but Morgan Stanley’s downgrade adds a critical counterweight. Traders should watch Sept 19 (block trade expiry) and Aug 2026 (robotaxi launch) as pivotal catalysts. For now, the $450 level is a psychological battleground—break above it, and the $500 calls gain legs; fail, and the $420-$430 range becomes a new battleground.