TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $500 Target as Volatility Rises

• TSLA trades at $463.1 (-2.5% intraday) amid a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup
• Put/Call OI ratio of 0.81 shows calls dominate, with heavy call OI at $500 and $520 strikes
• Block trades reveal $1.9M put sale at $410 (Jan 16 exp) and $3.8M call buy at $380 (Sep 19 exp)

The market is hedging for a $500 battle: Options data and technicals paint a clear picture—traders are pricing in a near-term test of key resistance while bracing for volatility. Here’s how to position for both scenarios.Bullish OI Clusters and Bearish Hedging in the Options Chain

TSLA’s options activity tells a story of cautious optimism. The top OTM call strikes ($500, $520) show massive open interest (23,204 and 11,674 contracts respectively), suggesting institutional players are pricing in a potential $500 breakout by Jan 2. This aligns with the MACD histogram (1.71) and RSI (57.4) hinting at momentum resuming higher.

But don’t ignore the puts: $250 and $260 strikes dominate the OTM put OI (28,656 and 13,618 contracts), indicating hedging against a drop below the 200D MA ($425.56). The most telling block trade? A $1.9M sale of TSLA20260116P410 puts—likely a hedge by longs expecting a short-term rebound.

News Flow: Robotaxi Hype vs. Earnings Disappointment

Analysts are split on Tesla’s fundamentals. The Q3 earnings miss (-37% net income) and Cybertruck recall weigh on sentiment, but robotaxi expansion and Optimus pre-orders ($500M) are fueling AI-driven optimism. South Korea’s youth embracing Model 3/Y as their top imported car is a positive tailwind, but U.S. tax credit expiration and EU FSD delays remain headwinds.

This duality explains the options setup: bulls are buying calls for AI-driven growth, while bears are shorting puts to capitalize on near-term earnings skepticism. The key will be whether the robotaxi monetization (25% commission model) justifies the 296x P/E ratio.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLAFor Options Traders:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy TSLA20260102C500 ($500 strike, 23,204 OI) if price breaks above the Bollinger Upper ($502.92). Target $520 for 20% gain.
• Bear Put Spread: Sell TSLA20260102P250 ($250 strike, 28,656 OI) if support at $430 holds. Capped risk if price rallies above $460.

For Stock Investors:

• Long Entry: Consider buying near $430 (30D support) if RSI (57.4) holds above 50. Target $460 (Bollinger Middle) with stop-loss at $425.
• Short-Term Play: Sell pressure at $469.4 intraday high suggests a pullback to $450–$455 could set up a bullish continuation pattern.

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA’s path hinges on three catalysts:

1. Robotaxi expansion to LA/NY by Q1 2026
2. Cybertruck production resumption post-Jan 2026
3. EU FSD approval (currently delayed until 2026)

The options market is already pricing in $500 by Jan 2, but execution risks remain. If the stock holds above $430, the long-term bullish trend (200D MA at $355.96) could reignite. But a break below $425 would validate the puts at $250–$260. Position accordingly—this is a stock where AI dreams meet manufacturing reality.