TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• TSLA trades at $467.63, down 1.59% from $475.19, with price near 200D MA ($355.96) but below Bollinger Band middle ($460.99)
• Options data shows 0.81 put/call OI ratio, heavy call OI at $500 strike, and block trades hinting at $380–$410 positioning
• Recent FSD updates and energy storage growth offset regulatory risks, but 325x P/E raises valuation concerns

The Options Market’s Bullish Whisper

Tesla’s options activity tells a story of cautious optimism. Despite today’s 1.6% drop, call open interest dominates the put/call ratio (0.81), with 23,204 contracts at the $500 strike—this Friday’s most watched call level. The put side, meanwhile, sees extreme bearishness at $190 (42,596 OI), though that’s more a hedge against black-swan scenarios than a realistic target. Block trades like TSLA20250919C380 ($380 call) and TSLA20260116P410 ($410 put) suggest institutional players are hedging or positioning for a $380–$410 range battle.

Why the $500 Strike Matters

Think of the $500 strike as a psychological battleground. With 23,204 contracts open, it’s the most liquid OTM call this Friday. If TSLA breaks above its 200D MA ($355.96) and holds above $460.99 (Bollinger middle), this strike could act as a catalyst. The RSI at 57.38 and MACD histogram rising above the signal line (12.48) also hint at short-term momentum. But watch the 30D support zone ($428.63–$430.61)—a break below that could trigger a test of the 200D MA.

News vs. Options: A Tug-of-War

Recent headlines are a mixed bag. The FSD v14.2.2 update (Dec 22) got a thumbs-up from Stifel, with analysts raising price targets to $551. But the NHTSA door-safety probe and 23% drop in U.S. retail sales in November add friction. Here’s the catch: options data leans bullish, but the news flow isn’t a clean green light. Retail investors might be buying calls on FSD optimism, while institutions are hedging with puts like TSLA20260116P410. This tug-of-war creates volatility opportunities, not a clear trend.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLAOptions Play: Buy TSLA20260109C480 ($480 call, expiring Jan 9) if price breaks above $469.4 (today’s high). Target: $500 strike if momentum holds. Alternatively, buy TSLA20260109P430 ($430 put) if price drops below $428.63 support.Stock Play: Consider entries near $430.61 (upper 30D support) with a stop-loss below $425.56 (200D support range). If bullish, target $480–$500 as a short-term ceiling.Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s story in 2026 hinges on execution. The options market is pricing in a $500 ceiling for now, but regulatory risks and valuation concerns could force a re-rating. If FSD adoption accelerates and energy storage revenue hits $5B+ quarters, the 200D MA ($355.96) could become a floor. For now, treat TSLA like a high-stakes poker hand—play it with position sizing that respects both the upside and the regulatory shadows.