TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Focus on $500 Calls and $470 Puts as Robotaxi Hype Meets Earnings Uncertainty

• TSLA trades at $475.37, down 2.07% from $485.40, with volume surging to 18.5M shares
• Options market shows 0.79 call/put open interest ratio, heavy call OI at $500 strike
• Block trades hint at hedging ahead of 2026, including a $1.88M put on TSLA20260116P410

Here’s the thing: TSLA’s options market is screaming bullish—but with a twist. The stock’s 2% drop today clashes with a call-heavy options landscape and a robotaxi rollout that could redefine its value. Let’s break down what traders are betting on and where the risks lie.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The OTM call/put open interest tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expirations, $500 calls (OI: 46,436) dominate, followed by $490 and $495 strikes. Puts are concentrated at $190 and $180, but those extreme levels feel like noise. The real action is in next Friday’s chain, where $500 calls (OI: 17,846) and $250 puts (OI: 23,712) anchor the debate.

This isn’t just random buying—it’s positioning. The call skew suggests traders expect a rebound above $489 (today’s high) before year-end. But don’t ignore the puts: that $470 strike (OI: 14,028) could act as a magnet if the stock stumbles toward its 30D support at $428.63.

Block trades add intrigue. The $1.88M TSLA20260116P410 put (expiring Jan 16) hints at hedging by big players. Meanwhile, the $3.8M TSLA20250919C380 call (Sep 19 expiry) suggests long-term bullishness. These aren’t just hedges—they’re bets on a post-2025 rally.

Robotaxis and Earnings: Can Optimism Outweigh Reality?

Tesla’s robotaxi push is the wildcard. Elon Musk’s deadline to remove safety monitors in Austin has the stock up slightly pre-market, but earnings tell a different story. Analysts expect a 37% drop in Q4 EPS to $0.46/share, with revenue forecasts down 3.7% year-over-year.

Here’s the tension: investors love the vision of autonomous ride-hailing but are wary of near-term execution risks. The options market is pricing in hope—$500 calls imply a 5.2% move from current levels—but earnings revisions (down 3.7% recently) keep the floor shaky. This is a classic case of long-term optimism vs. short-term pragmatism.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLA Today

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• Bullish: Buy TSLA20260102C500 (next Friday’s $500 call) if the stock breaks above $489. The RSI at 62.15 suggests momentum could carry into the $500 level.
• Bearish: Buy TSLA20260102P470 (next Friday’s $470 put) if the price dips to $475.33 (today’s low). The 200D MA at $354.83 is a distant floor, but $470 could offer a safer entry.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $475 if support holds above $460 (just below today’s low). Target $490 first, then $500.
• Stop-loss below $460 to protect against a breakdown in the short-term bullish trend.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Hype and Hurdles

TSLA’s story is a tug-of-war between AI-driven dreams and near-term earnings pressures. The options market is leaning bullish, but don’t ignore the 37% EPS drop forecast. If robotaxi trials go smoothly, the $500 calls could look like a steal. But if earnings miss badly, those puts at $470 might be your lifeline.

Bottom line: Position for a rebound but keep a tight stop. This stock isn’t just about where it’s going—it’s about how fast it gets there.