TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Focus on $500 Calls and $470 Puts as Robotaxi Hype Fuels Volatility

• TSLA trades at $478.24, down 1.48% from $485.40, with volume surging to 46.8M shares
• Options market shows 0.79 put/call open interest ratio, favoring bullish bets at $500 strike
• Block trades hint at hedging ahead of Musk’s robotaxi deadline and Q4 earnings

Here’s what the options market is whispering: TSLA’s price action and options flow suggest a tug-of-war between bulls eyeing the $500 level and bears testing support near $470. The key takeaway? The market is pricing in a high-probability move above $489 (intraday high) before fading back to test critical support. Let’s break down why this matters for your strategy.The OTM Options Imbalance and Whale Moves

TSLA’s options chain is a goldmine of insight. This Friday’s top call open interest sits squarely at $500 (46,436 contracts), with $510 and $495 strikes trailing closely. Puts? The $190 strike dominates (33,612 OI), but the $470 put (14,028 OI) is quietly gaining traction. This isn’t random—the call skew suggests institutional players are hedging a short-term rally, while the $470 put volume hints at cautious downside protection.

Block trades add intrigue. The TSLA20260116P410 put (expiring Jan 16) saw a $1.88M trade, and the TSLA20260618P410 put (June 18 expiry) was sold for $1.42M. These moves? A hedge against prolonged volatility as Musk’s robotaxi timeline looms. The $500 call block trades (Sept 19 expiry) also signal long-term conviction in the $500 psychological level.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Tesla’s robotaxi push is no longer a whisper—it’s a drumbeat. Musk’s deadline to remove safety monitors in Austin has the market on edge. Combine that with Q3’s record $28.1B revenue and a 20% YTD stock surge, and you’ve got a narrative that’s hard to ignore. But don’t overlook the cracks: Zacks’ analysis flags a 32.6% YoY earnings drop for FY2025 and a “D” valuation score. This isn’t a clean buy—it’s a high-stakes bet on Musk’s AI gamble paying off.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLA

For options traders: Buy TSLA20260102C500 calls (next Friday expiry) if the stock breaks above $489. The $500 strike is a magnet for liquidity, and a close above this level could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. For downside protection: TSLA20260102P470 puts offer a cheaper hedge if the stock dips to test the 30D support range ($428–$431).

Stock traders: Consider entry near $475 if the price holds above the lower Bollinger Band ($414.51). First target: reclaim $490 (intraday high). Second: test $500. Stop-loss at $460 if the 200D support ($354.83) starts to crumble.

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA’s story isn’t just about numbers—it’s about momentum. The options market is pricing in a 10–15% move either way before the end of January. Your edge? Ride the $500 call wave if robotaxi trials go smoothly, but keep a tight leash on risk. This isn’t a holding pattern—it’s a race against time and expectations. Stay nimble, and watch those $470 puts like a hawk. The road to $500 is paved with both opportunity and traps.