TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Focus on $500 Calls and $250 Puts as Volatility Nears

• TSLA’s options market shows heavy call open interest at $500 and $510, with puts dominating at $190 and $250.
• Technical indicators (MACD, RSI) and Bollinger Bands suggest a short-term bullish trend with key support/resistance zones.
• Block trades hint at institutional positioning: A $410 put and $380 call traded in bulk ahead of 2026 expiries.

Here’s the core insight: TSLA’s options activity and technicals align for a bullish bias, but bearish risks linger near $470–$480. The stock is caught between Musk’s robotaxi hype and regulatory headwinds, making this a high-conviction setup for traders.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The OTM call options with the highest open interest ($500, $510) suggest traders are pricing in a potential breakout above $489.09 (today’s intraday high). Meanwhile, the top puts ($190, $250) act as a bearish counterweight—though their volume pales compared to calls (put/call ratio: 0.787). This imbalance hints at a market leaning toward optimism, especially with the 30D support/resistance zone ($428.63–$430.61) holding firm.

Block trades add intrigue. A 400-lot of the TSLA20260116P410 put ($250 strike, expiring Jan 16) and a 1,200-lot of the TSLA20250919C380 call (expiring Sept 19) suggest institutional players are hedging or positioning for 2026 volatility. The TSLA20260618P410 put (sold in 200-lot) could signal a bearish bet on longer-term risks.

News Flow: Robotaxi Hype vs. Analyst Bearishness

Tesla’s robotaxi push and Starlink’s 9M users are fueling bullish sentiment, but UBS’s $247 price target (49.5% downside) and NHTSA’s Model 3 door probe introduce friction. Deutsche Bank’s raised target and Q4 delivery optimism counterbalance this, creating a tug-of-war between short-term hype and long-term skepticism. Retail traders might overreact to Musk’s social media updates, while institutional investors focus on earnings revisions and regulatory risks.

Actionable Trading Opportunities

For options traders, consider these setups:

• Bullish Play: Buy the TSLA20260102C500 ($500 call, expiring Jan 2). If TSLA breaks above $489 (Bollinger Upper Band), this strike could catch momentum. Target: $510–$520.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy the TSLA20260102P470 ($470 put, expiring Jan 2). If the stock dips below $480.18 (intraday low), this strike offers downside protection.

For stock traders, key levels matter:

• Entry: Consider buying near $430.60 (30D resistance) if the price holds above $428.63 (support). Stop-loss below $425.55 (200D support).
• Target: Aim for $500–$510 if the 30D MA (441.53) and 100D MA (411.87) align with a breakout.

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA’s options market is primed for a directional move. With calls dominating and robotaxi deadlines approaching, the stock could surge if Musk meets his “safety monitor” removal goal. But regulatory risks and UBS’s bearish call mean a pullback to $450–$460 isn’t out of the question. Traders should balance bullish conviction with caution—especially as block trades hint at 2026 positioning. The next 72 hours will test whether $489 holds or if bears reclaim control near $470. Stay nimble, and let the data guide your entries.