TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid Delivery Concerns: Here’s How to Play the $500 Call Wall and 200D Support Breakout

• Cathie Wood’s $30M Tesla selloff highlights short-term profit-taking but long-term catalysts remain intact.
• Put/Call ratio of 0.816 (open interest) shows bullish skew, with heavy call OI at $500 and $520 strikes.
• Block trades suggest institutional positioning: A $410 put sale and $410 call buys hint at strategic hedging.
• Here’s the takeaway: Tesla’s options market is pricing in a bullish bias, but near-term volatility from delivery estimates and robotaxi hype could create sharp swings. The stock shows upside potential if it holds above 200D support at $425.55.

The $500 Call Wall and 200D Support: A Tale of Two Scenarios

Let’s start with the options data. The OTM call options with the highest open interest (OI) this Friday are clustered at $500, $520, and $480, while puts dominate at $250 and $240. This isn’t random. The TSLA20260102C500 call has 24,084 contracts in OI—nearly double the next strike. That’s a wall of liquidity. If the stock breaks above $462.46 (the upper Bollinger Band), those calls could ignite a short gamma squeeze.

On the downside, the TSLA20260102P250 put has 42,595 OI, nearly triple the next put. That’s a bearish signal, but not a death knell. Think of it like a dam holding back water: if TSLA breaks below 30D support at $428.63, the $250 put could see explosive demand. Block trades add intrigue. The TSLA20260116P410 put was sold for $1.88M—possibly by a whale betting on a bounce. Meanwhile, the TSLA20250919C380 call saw a $3.8M block buy, hinting at long-term bullish positioning.

Navigating the Bull Case: Robotaxi Hype vs. Delivery Realities

Now, let’s unpack the news. Cathie Wood’s selloff is a red flag for short-term traders, but Baird and Kallo are still bullish on robotaxi and Optimus. The market’s 21% YTD gain suggests investors are buying the long-term story. However, Q4 delivery estimates (400K units, -15% YoY) are a headwind. Gary Black’s warning about a potential delivery shortfall timing with the robotaxi launch is critical—volatility could spike if the numbers miss.

Here’s the rub: Tesla’s price is already pricing in some of this. The RSI at 57.3 and MACD near zero indicate a neutral zone. If the stock holds above $453.83 (today’s intraday low), the 200D MA at $357.06 becomes a psychological floor. But if it cracks below $428.63, the 200D support at $425.55 could be next. The key is whether the robotaxi demo in Q1 2026 justifies the current premium.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders, the TSLA20260109C500 call (next Friday’s expiry) is a high-conviction play if you believe in a $500+ move. Entry near $462.46 (upper Bollinger Band) with a stop below $453.83 makes sense. For downside protection, the TSLA20260109P250 put offers a safety net if the stock gaps down—ideal for hedging a long position.

Stock traders should consider entries near $428.63 (30D support) or $425.55 (200D support). A break above $462.46 targets $500, while a drop below $425.55 could test $423.09 (lower Bollinger Band). Use tight stops to avoid getting whipsawed by earnings or delivery reports.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing the Bull and Bear Cases

Tesla’s story is a tug-of-war between short-term execution risks and long-term innovation bets. The options market is leaning bullish, but don’t ignore the $250 put wall—it’s a warning sign. If you’re bullish, play it with the $500 calls and 200D support entries. If you’re cautious, the puts offer a way to profit from a selloff. Either way, the coming weeks will test whether the market values Tesla’s robotaxi dreams or its delivery realities more.