TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $500 Dominate as Short-Term Breakout Looms

• TSLA trades at $487.17, down 0.32% from its 52-week high of $491.94.
• Call open interest (OI) at $500 strike is 34,721 for this Friday’s expiry, dwarfing put OI at $190 ($33,612).
• Block trades hint at institutional positioning: A $1.88M put (TSLA20260116P410) and a $3.81M call (TSLA20250919C380) stand out.
• Here’s the takeaway: The options market is heavily skewed bullish, but recent news and technicals suggest a cautious entry strategy.

The Call-Put Imbalance and What It Reveals

TSLA’s options chain is a goldmine for sentiment analysis. This Friday’s expiry sees call OI at $500 ($34,721) and $510 ($24,611) dominating, while puts at $190 ($33,612) and $250 ($23,713) next week show defensive positioning. The put/call ratio of 0.79 (for open interest) isn’t just a number—it’s a signal that bulls are in control. But here’s the catch: heavy call OI at $500 could act as a gravity well. If TSLA breaks above $491.94 (intraday high), that strike might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Conversely, the lack of significant put OI below $400 suggests limited downside protection unless volatility spikes.

Block trades add intrigue. The $1.88M TSLA20260116P410 put (expiring Jan 16) hints at hedging activity, while the $3.81M TSLA20250919C380 call (expiring Sept 19) suggests long-term bullish bets. These aren’t random—they’re clues about where big players see value.

News and Market Narrative: Optimism vs. Skepticism

Tesla’s story is a tug-of-war. On one side: Elon Musk’s reinstated $55.8B pay package and AI alliances (like backing Demis Hassabis) fuel optimism. On the other: Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs trimming Tesla holdings and UBS’s 50% downside target ($247) cast shadows. The Austin Robotaxi project’s smaller-than-expected rollout also raises questions about Musk’s timelines.

But here’s the twist: The market isn’t listening to the bears yet. TSLA’s RSI at 70 (overbought) and MACD histogram at 4.3 suggest momentum is still intact. The 30D support/resistance zone ($428.63–$430.61) is a critical level—if TSLA holds there, bulls regain control. If it breaks, the 200D moving average at $352.24 becomes a death trap.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels

For options traders, the TSLA20260102C500 call (expiring Jan 2) is a prime candidate. With OI at 5,796 and TSLA trading near $487, this strike offers leverage if the stock breaks $491.94. A $495 entry target makes sense here—once TSLA clears that, the $500 call’s theta decay slows, and gamma kicks in.

For the stock: Consider entry near $430.60 (upper bound of 30D support) if TSLA holds above $485.01 (intraday low). A breakout above $491.94 targets $500, while a breakdown below $485.01 risks a test of $428.63. For a bearish angle, a put spread using TSLA20260102P450 and TSLA20260102P400 could profit if TSLA drops below $480—key for those hedging long positions.

Volatility on the Horizon: Bulls Have the Edge, But Risks Loom

TSLA’s technicals and options activity align for a short-term bullish bias. The 30D and 100D moving averages ($438.66 and $408.28) are both rising, and Bollinger Bands show the stock is trading near the upper band ($497.91). This isn’t a buy-the-dip scenario—it’s a test of conviction. If TSLA holds its 30D support, the $500 level becomes a gravitational pull. But if it cracks below $485, the put/call imbalance could reverse fast.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for bulls, but don’t ignore the risks. The block trades and analyst warnings (like UBS’s $247 target) mean volatility isn’t just a possibility—it’s a certainty. Position yourself accordingly.