TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid AI Hype: Key Strikes to Watch for 2026 Breakouts

• TSLA trades at $454.56, hovering near its 30-day moving average of $446.60 while sitting well above its 200-day MA of $358.08.
• Options market shows a 0.81 put/call OI ratio, favoring calls with heavy open interest at $500 and $490 strike calls.
• Block trades hint at big money moves, including a $3.8M call block at the $380 strike and a $1.9M put trade at $410.

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options activity and technicals point to upside potential in 2026, but short-term volatility looms as AI hype clashes with near-term delivery risks.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is split between cautious bears and bullish AI optimists. For Friday’s expiration (Jan 2, 2026), calls dominate at $500 (OI: 23,424) and $490 (OI: 16,861), while puts pile up at $190 (OI: 42,595) and $250 (OI: 23,829). This suggests a battle between short-term bears hedging a pullback and long-term bulls betting on Elon Musk’s AI-driven renaissance.

The block trades add intrigue. A $3.8M call block at TSLA20250919C380 (expiring Sept 19, 2025) hints at big money locking in gains from earlier price swings. Meanwhile, a $1.9M put trade at TSLA20260116P410 (Jan 16, 2026) signals hedging activity ahead of Q4 earnings. Don’t ignore the $250 put OI surge for next Friday either—it could trigger a short squeeze if the stock holds above $428.63 (30-day support).

Why the News Won’t Derail Tesla’s AI Narrative

The Q4 delivery forecast—down 15% to 422,850 units—feels bearish on paper. But here’s the twist: investors are pricing in AI, not just cars. Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu and Wedbush’s Dan Ives both highlight Tesla’s robotaxi progress and FSD roadmap as 2026 catalysts. The stock’s 14% gain in 2025 despite sales declines proves the market is already discounting long-term AI value.

That said, the tax credit phaseout and production bottlenecks (Model Y retooling, Musk’s political entanglements) could keep the stock volatile. The key is whether the $450–$460 range holds—a breakout here would validate AI optimism, while a drop below $430.61 (200D support) could reignite bearish sentiment.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLA in 2026

• Options Play: Buy the TSLA20260109C4925 ($492.5 call expiring Jan 9) if TSLA breaks above $463.68 (middle Bollinger Band). Target: $510 (current $500 call OI level). Stop-loss: $452.62 (intraday low).
• Stock Play: Enter long near $452.62 if support holds, aiming for $463.68 (middle BB) or $480 (call-heavy zone). Exit below $430.92 (200D resistance) to protect gains.
• Bearish Hedge: Sell the TSLA20260109P450 ($450 put) if TSLA dips below $430.61. Target: $427.11 (lower BB).

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA’s 2026 journey hinges on two forces: execution on AI/robotaxi and execution on car production. The options market is pricing in a 5–10% move by Jan 9, but the real fireworks start when FSD rolls out. For now, watch the $450–$480 range like a hawk. If bulls take control, this stock could revisit $500+ territory by mid-2026. If bears win, the 200-day MA at $358.08 becomes a new battleground.

Bottom line: TSLA is a high-risk, high-reward trade. The AI narrative is strong, but don’t let it blind you to near-term cracks. Stay nimble, and let the options data guide your entries.