TSLA Options Signal $500 Bullish Battle: Whale Trades and RSI 64 Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• TSLA trades at $485.4, hovering near key psychological resistance as options data shows 0.79 put/call OI ratio (calls dominate).
• Top call OI piles up at $500 strike for this Friday, while block trades hint at long-term bearish positioning via deep-out-of-the-money puts.
• RSI at 64 and bullish Kline patterns suggest momentum favors a push toward $500, but Bollinger Bands warn of volatility risks.

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is locked in a high-stakes game of chicken at $500. With 40,793 open contracts at the $500 call strike this Friday and Cathie Wood trimming her stake, the stock sits at a crossroads between technical optimism and valuation skepticism. The data leans upside-biased for now, but risks materialize if support at $428 fails.

The $500 Call Pile-Up and Bearish Whales in the Shadows

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: 40,793 open contracts at the $500 call strike this Friday (TSLA20251226C500). That’s not just noise—it’s a crowd of traders betting Tesla will break through its psychological ceiling. The put/call ratio of 0.79 (calls > puts) reinforces this bullish tilt, but don’t ignore the bearish undercurrents. The TSLA20260116P410 block trade (400 contracts at $410 strike) and TSLA20260618P410 (200 contracts sold) suggest some big players are hedging against a prolonged correction. Think of it like a football game: the crowd’s cheering for a touchdown, but the defense is already preparing for a potential fumble.

News Flow: $500 as a Make-or-Break Level

The recent headlines crystallize the tension. Analysts debating whether $500 is a "psychological resistance" or a gateway to AI-driven growth? That’s not just chatter—it’s shaping retail and institutional behavior. Cathie Wood’s partial exit ($11.2M from ARKK) adds fuel to the fire. While ARK still holds 11.9% of its portfolio in TSLA, the move signals "profit-taking" rather than panic. Combine this with Tesla’s Q3 struggles (18% gross margin, 31% EPS drop) and you’ve got a stock where fundamentals lag hype. But here’s the twist: if FSD monetization takes off, the $500 level could become a floor, not a ceiling.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Brave, Puts for the Pragmatic

For the bullish:

• TSLA20251226C500 (this Friday’s $500 call): If TSLA closes above $495 by Friday, this could pay off handsomely. Entry: $488–$490. Target: $500+.
• TSLA20260102C500 (next Friday’s $500 call): A longer play if the $500 battle is delayed. Cheaper premium but needs a clearer breakout.

For the cautious:

• TSLA20251226P470 (this Friday’s $470 put): Protects against a drop below $476 intraday low. Entry: $485–$480. Stop-loss: $475.

Stock traders: Consider entries near $428–$430 (30D support) if price retests. Aggressive buyers could target $490–$500, but watch the 200D MA at $425.55 like a hawk.

Volatility on the Horizon: A Tale of Two Scenarios

The next 72 hours will test TSLA’s resolve. A close above $500 could trigger a short-covering rally, but a breakdown below $476 would invite puts like TSLA20251226P470 to dominate. The block trades at $410 strikes (expiring in January and June 2026) hint at a worst-case scenario where TSLA retests $400. For now, the RSI at 64 and bullish MACD histogram (3.72) suggest the bulls have momentum—but don’t bet the farm. This is a stock where every $50 move feels like a revolution.