TSLA Options Signal $500 Bullish Battle: Call OI Surge and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• TSLA trades at $485.4, clinging to a short-term bullish trend with MACD (15.01) and RSI (64.41) favoring upside.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $500 (40,793 contracts) and puts at $250 (23,713), hinting at a price war near key levels.
• Block trades like TSLA20250919C380 ($3.8M turnover) and TSLA20260116P410 ($1.88M) suggest institutional positioning for near-term volatility.

The stock is teetering on a knife edge: Options sentiment screams for a $500 breakout, but regulatory risks and margin pressures could drag it down. Here’s how to navigate the crossroads.Bullish Call OI vs. Bearish Put Defense: A $500 Showdown

The options market is polarized. Call open interest (OI) at $500 (40,793) and $520 (22,222) suggests traders are betting on a push above the 20-day Bollinger Band (500.71). Meanwhile, puts at $250 (23,713) and $240 (17,401) act as a safety net for a potential drop to the 200D support zone (425.56–430.92). The put/call ratio of 0.79 leans bullish, but don’t ignore the block trades: A 1,200-lot sale of TSLA20250919C380 and a 400-lot buy of TSLA20260116P410 signal mixed institutional bets. Bulls are stacking up for a $500+ move, but bears are hedging below $470.

News: AI Hype vs. Margin Realities

Tesla’s story is a tug-of-war. Cathie Wood’s ARKK trimming TSLA exposure (down to 11.9% of the portfolio) adds short-term jitters, but the stock’s 18% YTD gain and $41B cash pile keep the AI dream alive. The NHTSA Model 3 probe is a near-term headwind, yet UBS’s $247 "Sell" rating feels out of step with the broader market’s 221x forward P/E optimism. The key is execution: If FSD and robotaxi rollouts accelerate, the $500+ calls could ignite. But margin compression and Chinese EV competition mean this isn’t a free ride.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

• Bull Play: Buy TSLA20251226C500 (strike price $500, expiring Friday). With OI at 40,793, this is the most liquid call to capitalize on a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band. Target: $515 if TSLA closes above $500 by Friday.
• Bear Hedge: Buy TSLA20260102P250 (strike $250, expiring next Friday). Protect against a sharp drop to the 200D support zone. Ideal if TSLA dips below $470 and volume spikes.
• Stock Entry: Consider buying TSLA near $428.63 (30D support) if it holds. Target: $490.9 (intraday high) if AI news catalyzes a rebound. Stop-loss below $425.56.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Earthbound Risks

The next two weeks will test Tesla’s mettle. A $500 close this Friday would validate the bulls’ AI narrative, while a drop below $470 could trigger panic selling. The block trades hint at a "wait-and-see" stance from big players—use that to your advantage. If you’re bullish, the $500 call is your best bet. If caution wins, the $250 put offers downside insurance. Either way, Tesla’s story isn’t over. It’s just getting messy.