TSLA Options Signal $500 Bullish Battle: Call OI Surge and Block Trades Point to High-Risk, High-Reward Setup

• Cathie Wood trims Tesla stake, but ARK still holds 11.9% weight in TSLA
• Options frenzy at $500 call strike (40,793 open interest) vs. $190 put (33,612 OI)
• Regulatory probe looms over 179K Model 3s, adding near-term volatility

Tesla’s options market is locked in a high-stakes chess match. With the stock trading at $482.14—down 0.7% from its intraday high—investors are betting big on both sides of the $500 psychological level. The data screams upside potential for now, but the bearish undercurrents can’t be ignored.

The $500 Call Wall and Bearish Put Fortresses

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s $500 call (TSLA20251226C500) has 40,793 open contracts—the highest of any strike. That’s not just noise; it’s a crowded trade where big money is hedging a short-term pop. Meanwhile, the $190 put (TSLA20251226P190) dominates bearish bets with 33,612 OI. The put/call ratio of 0.79 (favoring calls) suggests bulls still control the narrative, but the sheer size of those puts means a sharp drop could trigger cascading selling.

Block trades add intrigue. The TSLA20250919C380 call (1,200 contracts) and TSLA20260116P410 put (400 contracts) hint at institutional positioning. The $410 put expiring in January 2026 is particularly telling—it’s a long-dated hedge against a potential earnings miss or regulatory hit. If you’re a big player, you’re either buying insurance or prepping for a rally.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Tesla’s story is a mixed bag. Cathie Wood’s partial exit from ARK’s TSLA position isn’t a death knell—she’s still bullish on AI and robotaxis. The recent FSD buzz (spiked by Waymo’s outage) has pushed the stock 15% higher in a month, but margins are shrinking. The NHTSA probe into Model 3 door releases adds a new layer of risk. Retail investors love FSD hype, but regulators love lawsuits. This duality means volatility isn’t going away.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Brave, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders, the TSLA20260102C500 call (next Friday’s $500 strike) is a high-conviction play. If Tesla breaks above its intraday high of $490.90, this strike could see explosive action. Entry: $15–$18 per contract. Target: $25–$30 if the stock hits $500. Stop-loss: Close the trade if the stock dips below $475.

Stock traders should watch $475 support (near 30D support level). A bounce here could trigger a test of the $500 Bollinger Band. Aggressive buyers might enter at $475–$480 with a target at $510. Conservative players could wait for a breakdown below $460—then consider the TSLA20260102P470 put (11,451 OI) as a hedge.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s options market is a pressure cooker. The $500 call wall and regulatory risks mean this stock isn’t going straight up—it’s going to zigzag. If FSD gets regulatory green lights and margins stabilize, the bulls win. But a production snafu or safety recall could turn those puts into a stampede. Your edge? Watch the $490.90 intraday high like a hawk. If it holds, the $500 level is within reach. If it breaks, the puts get a lot louder.

Bottom line: This is a high-beta setup. You’re either riding the AI hype train or hedging against the next regulatory curveball. Either way, December 26th’s options expiry could be the first big test.