TSLA Options Show Bullish Bias at $500 Strike as Block Trades Signal Volatility Play—Here’s How to Position for 2026

• TSLA trades at $450.8, up 1.3% with volume surging to 51M shares.
• Options data reveals a 0.82 put/call open interest ratio, favoring calls at key strikes like $500 and $960.
• Block trades show a $3.1M bet on the TSLA20260116C440 call and a $1.4M short on the same strike’s put.

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is split between short-term bearishness and long-term bullishness. The stock is perched near its 30-day moving average ($454.84) but sits far above its 200D MA ($364.75). With RSI at 32 (oversold) and MACD trending lower, the technicals hint at a potential rebound—but the options data tells a more nuanced story. Let’s break it down.Bullish Calls at $500 Clash with Bearish Puts at $250

The options chain is a chessboard of conflicting bets. For this Friday’s expiry (Jan 16), the TSLA20260116C500 call ($500 strike) leads with 43,853 open contracts, while the TSLA20260116P250 put ($250 strike) dominates puts with 42,445 open contracts. This suggests a tug-of-war: bulls are hedging for a rally above $500, while bears are bracing for a drop below $250.

But here’s the twist: the largest block trade today was a $3.1M buy of TSLA20260116C440 calls (strike $440, expiry Jan 16). That’s a near-term bet Tesla will hold above $440—a level just 1.5% below current price. Meanwhile, a $1.4M short on the TSLA20260116P440 put implies sellers expect the stock to avoid a sharp drop. This isn’t a clear signal—it’s a volatility play. If you’re trading TSLA, you’re hedging both ways.

News Flow: Bearish Analysts vs. Bullish AI Hopes

The headlines are all over the map. Wolfe Research and Wells Fargo are bearish, citing slowing demand and margin pressures. But Stifel and others see a $600+ future if Cybertruck and FSD take off. The stock’s 298x P/E reflects a gamble: investors are pricing in AI and robotics success, not just cars.

This duality shows up in options. The $960 call (with 51,083 open contracts) is a moonshot bet on AI-driven growth, while the $250 put ($113,530 open interest for next Friday) reflects fear of a margin collapse. The truth? Tesla’s future hinges on execution. If FSD and Optimus deliver, the $500 call could be a steal. If not, the $250 put might be your safety net.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders, the TSLA20260116C500 call (strike $500, expiry Jan 16) is a high-conviction play if you believe in a short-term rebound. The RSI at 32 suggests a bounce is possible, and the block trade at $440 shows support for near-term stability. For downside protection, the TSLA20260123P250 put (strike $250, expiry Jan 23) offers a floor if the bearish analysts are right.

Stock traders should watch two levels:

• Entry near $429 (30D support) if the stock holds above its 200D MA.
• Exit near $461 (middle Bollinger Band) if the rebound gains steam.

A tighter play: buy TSLA if it breaks above $454.3 (today’s high) with volume, or sell short if it drops below $438 (intraday low).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish and Bearish Catalysts

TSLA’s path in 2026 is a tightrope. The options market is pricing in both a $250 crash and a $960 moonshot. The stock’s technicals suggest a rebound is likely in the short term, but the fundamentals are murky. If you’re trading this, you need to pick a side—or hedge both. The block trades show big players are doing the latter. For retail traders, the TSLA20260116C500 call and TSLA20260123P250 put offer a way to play the extremes without overexposing your portfolio.

One thing’s certain: TSLA won’t stay quiet. The question is whether you’re ready for the ride.