TryHard's Global Play: Can a $10M Fund Capture a $3.5T Market?

TryHard is making a bold bet on a market that dwarfs its current scale. The global entertainment and media (E&M) industry is projected to grow at a steady 3.7% compound annual growth rate, expanding from $2.9 trillion in 2024 to a massive $3.5 trillion by 2029. That's a $577 billion increase in value, driven by technology and shifting consumer engagement. For a company with current revenue around $3.54 billion and a net margin of just 0.4%, this represents a vast, untapped opportunity. Its new strategy is to capture a piece of it through a small, focused vehicle.

The company has committed to a binding collaboration agreement with Carnegie Hill Capital Partners to establish a Hong Kong-based investment fund targeting $10-20 million. This fund is designed to invest in global opportunities like intellectual property management and international music festivals, directly tapping into the industry's growth themes. The move is a clear pivot from TryHard's existing event curation and venue operations, aiming to scale its footprint and revenue streams beyond its current, narrow base.

The core investment question is straightforward: Can a $10-20 million fund create outsized growth for a company whose own earnings have been in steep decline? With its net margin of just 0.4% and a history of shrinking profits, TryHard needs a catalyst. This fund is that lever, but its success hinges entirely on the company's ability to identify and profit from the right global trends within a market that is itself expanding. The setup is high-risk, high-reward, with the entire growth trajectory now tied to the fund's performance.

The Growth Thesis: Pathways to Scalability

The potential upside for TryHard hinges on transforming this $10-20 million fund from a side project into a scalable engine. The primary growth pathway is clear: securing equity stakes in high-growth ventures within the global entertainment market. By investing in intellectual property management, international music festivals, or digital media, the fund could generate future royalty streams or management fees. This would directly address TryHard's current financial profile, where its net margin of just 0.4% and 89% earnings decline in 2025 show its core event curation and consultancy model is struggling. Equity investments with recurring revenue potential offer a higher-margin alternative that could fundamentally improve the company's profitability.

Success would also allow TryHard to scale its existing operational model globally. The fund acts as a capital and deal pipeline, providing the company with early access to international opportunities. For instance, a successful investment in a European music festival could lead to TryHard's consultancy and event curation teams being hired to manage the event. This creates a flywheel: fund investments generate deal flow, which leverages TryHard's core services, which in turn generates cash to deploy into more fund opportunities. The company's existing multi-genre event curation services and management expertise become the scalable execution arm for the fund's portfolio.

The key metric for this strategy will be the fund's ability to deploy capital efficiently and generate returns that justify the company's capital allocation. Given TryHard's current financial state, the fund must not only break even but deliver strong returns to make the venture worthwhile. The binding collaboration agreement with Carnegie Hill Capital Partners provides a governance framework, but the real test is in the numbers. The company needs to demonstrate it can identify and profit from the right global trends within a market projected to grow to $3.5 trillion. If the fund can successfully deploy its capital and generate outsized returns, it could catalyze a complete growth transformation. If not, the company's financial challenges will persist, and the fund will be a costly distraction.

Execution Risks and Financial Reality Check

The fund's ambitious vision faces a stark reality check on both scale and financial health. Its initial capital of $10-20 million is a minuscule drop in the $3.5 trillion global entertainment bucket. Even a perfectly executed investment would have a limited direct impact on TryHard's top line. The strategy's success, therefore, hinges entirely on leverage-using these initial stakes to unlock a much larger pipeline of consultancy and event management work. Without that flywheel effect, the fund remains a small, isolated bet.

The company's own financials compound the risk. TryHard's core business is in clear contraction, with revenue growth slowing to just 2.24% in 2025 and earnings plunging by 89%. This creates a high-risk profile for a growth bet. The company is not deploying capital from a position of strength but from one of decline. The fund must not only succeed but deliver outsized returns to justify the capital allocation and begin to reverse the earnings trend. Its net margin of just 0.4% leaves almost no room for error.

Execution is also a near-term hurdle. The fund's establishment is not guaranteed. The binding agreement is subject to conditions precedent, including Hong Kong SFC licensing and final documentation. The parties expect the fund to be established by June 2026 if these are met. This timeline introduces a clear execution risk; any delay or regulatory snag could push back the catalyst TryHard needs. The strategy's entire growth thesis is now tied to a series of external approvals and the successful deployment of a tiny capital base into a vast, competitive market. The setup demands flawless execution from a company whose recent performance suggests it is still struggling to get its own house in order.

Catalysts, Scenarios, and What to Watch

The path forward for TryHard is now defined by a clear sequence of milestones. The main catalyst is the fund's formal establishment by June 2026, as the parties have stated they expect the fund to be established by that date if conditions precedent are met. This is the foundational event. The real test begins immediately after, with the first investment announcements and capital deployment. Investors should watch for evidence that the fund is moving beyond announcements to tangible deals, particularly in areas like intellectual property management or international music festivals.

Following that, the critical metric will be whether TryHard can leverage this new capital into its core operations. The growth thesis depends on a flywheel effect: fund investments should lead to management contracts and event curation work for those same ventures. Early signs of this leverage-such as press releases announcing TryHard's consultancy role for a fund-backed festival or venue-would validate the strategy's scalability and provide a tangible revenue boost.

The primary risks that could undermine this scenario are significant. First, the global entertainment sector is intensely competitive, with larger competitors vying for content and advertising. TryHard's $10-20 million fund will be competing for deals against well-capitalized industry giants. Second, the fund's location in Hong Kong introduces geopolitical headwinds. While the city remains a hub, the fragile geopolitical environment and a challenging fundraising landscape in the region could complicate operations and exits. Finally, there is the risk of the fund becoming a capital drain. Given TryHard's own financial struggles, with earnings down 89% last year, the fund must generate strong returns quickly to justify its existence and begin reversing the company's decline.

The bottom line is that TryHard is now a binary bet. Success requires flawless execution on the June 2026 launch, followed by rapid deployment into a crowded market and the successful conversion of those investments into core service revenue. Any stumble on the timeline, any failure to secure deals, or any misstep in leveraging the fund's portfolio could make this a costly distraction. For a growth investor, the next few months will be about watching for the first signs of the flywheel engaging-or the first cracks in the plan.