TRXUSDT Market Overview

• TRXUSDT traded in a tight range overnight, consolidating between 0.3194 and 0.3200 before a sharp drop below 0.3160 in the early hours.
• Momentum waned following a bearish divergence in the RSI, with the price closing 3.3% lower at 0.3143.
• Volatility expanded in the late AM with a large-volume candle dipping below 0.3150, suggesting a potential short-term support test.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, confirming increased market uncertainty and a potential reversal trigger near 0.3142.
• Backtest strategies using 20-period RSI and 50-period MA may find confirmation for short-term entries near key Fibonacci levels.

TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.3193 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.3200, and closed at 0.3143 on October 12 at 12:00 ET, after hitting a low of 0.3108. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 194,698,110.5, with a notional turnover of $61,338,492. The pair displayed a bearish bias, especially in the early morning hours, with a large-volume sell-off below 0.3160.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a series of bearish engulfing patterns between 19:00–20:00 ET as the price fell from 0.3198 to 0.3159. A long-legged doji appeared at 0.3152 in the early morning, suggesting indecision. The price found immediate support at 0.3142, where a bullish pinbar formed, hinting at potential short-term stability.

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed to the downside during the early selloff, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50 and 200-day moving averages are aligned, supporting the bearish trend. The 100-day MA is near 0.3145, coinciding with the recent support level and suggesting a potential test.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative around 19:30 ET and remained bearish, while the RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, the RSI did not rally above 30 despite volume picking up, suggesting weak buying interest. A divergence between the RSI and price in the morning hours reinforced the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early hours, with the price dropping outside the lower Bollinger Band at 0.3135–0.3150. This volatility expansion often precedes a reversal or consolidation. The price currently hovers just above the lower band, near a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the prior day’s high.

Volume & Turnover

The largest 15-minute volume spike occurred at 20:15 ET, where 13.6 million TRX changed hands, signaling strong selling pressure. Turnover rose sharply during that period, aligning with the price decline. However, volume has remained subdued near 0.3142, suggesting a potential short-term bottoming process. No significant divergence was observed between price and turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 0.3200 to 0.3108, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at 0.3155 and 0.3133 respectively. The price is currently testing the 61.8% level with a bullish pinbar forming near 0.3142, which overlaps with the 20-period MA and 100-day MA. This suggests a potential setup for a countertrend move or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish pinbar forming near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop below the low of the candle and a target at the 38.2% level or the nearest resistance. A 15-minute RSI crossing above 30 with increasing volume could serve as confirmation of the setup. The strategy may also include a short entry if the price fails to hold the 0.3142 level and breaks the 0.3133 Fibonacci level, with a target to the next support zone. Given the recent volatility, the strategy may need to adjust stop levels based on Bollinger Band width.