TRXUSDT Market Overview

• Price drifted lower with key support at 0.3310
• RSI shows easing bearish momentum after intraday rebound
• High volatility seen as price fluctuated within 0.3306–0.3331
• Volume confirmed bearish bias during key breakdowns
• Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction toward late session

TRON/Tether USDt (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.3324 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET and traded between 0.3306 and 0.3331 before closing at 0.3312 on 2025-09-06 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 79.07 million TRX, with a notional turnover of $26.21 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish continuation, forming multiple bearish patterns such as the hanging man and dark cloud cover. Key support levels were identified at 0.3310 and 0.3306, while resistance held at 0.3322 and 0.3331. A notable doji formed at 0.3313, signaling indecision and a potential short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both sloped downward, reinforcing bearish momentum. The daily chart showed the 50/100/200 EMA in a bearish alignment, with the 50 EMA recently crossing below the 200 EMA, signaling a strong bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, suggesting easing downward momentum. RSI bottomed near 30 in the later hours, suggesting potential oversold conditions and a possible bounce in the near term. The RSI divergence with price indicated a potential short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the session in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bearish dominance. A moderate contraction of the bands was observed in the early morning hours, followed by an expansion as volume picked up. This suggested an increase in volatility and potential price swings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdowns below key support levels, particularly around 0.3310 and 0.3306, confirming the bearish bias. Turnover aligned with volume, showing high notional value during downward moves. No major divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting continued conviction from sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the recent 15-minute swing from 0.3310 to 0.3331 showed price bouncing off the 61.8% level at 0.3317 and then falling below the 38.2% level at 0.3322. Daily Fibonacci levels highlighted 0.3306 as a critical support zone, where price found refuge before closing.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using the 20-period and 50-period EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart to identify short-term directional bias, combined with RSI divergences and volume confirmation for trade entries. This strategy would enter short positions when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA, RSI diverges negatively, and volume surges on downward moves. A stop-loss would be placed just above key resistance levels, while profit targets would align with Fibonacci retracement levels. This approach leverages the observed bearish alignment of indicators and confirms the potential for trend continuation on oversold bounces.