TRX's Mayer Multiple and Derivatives Activity as Bearish Signals Amid DOGE's Bullish Momentum

The Contrarian Case: TRX's Fragile Support vs. DOGE's Explosive Potential

The cryptocurrency market in Q3 2025 is a study in contrasts. While TRON (TRX) clings to a historically significant Mayer Multiple of 1.2x, its derivatives landscape tells a story of waning conviction. Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) surges forward, buoyed by a 94% probability of ETF approval and derivatives volume spiking to $2.9 billion. This divergence demands a strategic recalibration: underweight TRX and tactically overweight DOGE.

TRX: A Mayer Multiple That's More Trap Than Launchpad

TRX's price currently hovers at $0.3401, 28% above its 250-day moving average (Mayer Multiple of 1.28) . On the surface, this appears bullish. However, the derivatives market paints a darker picture. CoinGlass data reveals a 58.74% drop in derivatives volume to $433.11 million and a 9.04% decline in open interest to $507.21 million . Negative funding rates (-0.0075%) further signal short dominance, with traders paying to maintain bearish positions .

This is not a base-hold scenario—it's a liquidity vacuum. Santiment's slightly positive funding rate of 0.01% offers a glimmer of hope, but it's drowned out by the broader trend of speculative retreat. TRX's recent breakout above $0.30 is fragile, supported by a 68 RSI reading that, while strong, lacks the momentum to sustain a 32% rally . Worse, network activity has plummeted 65% since June, undermining TRON's utility as a high-throughput blockchain .

DOGE: ETF Hype and Derivatives Frenzy Fuel a New Bull Cycle

In stark contrast, DOGE's narrative is one of explosive optimism. With a 94% chance of ETF approval by year-end , the token has surged 7% in 24 hours, trading near $0.231. Derivatives volume has spiked to $2.9 billion, a 123% increase from prior levels , while open interest rose 14.5% to $3.81 billion . Analysts project a potential $1.40 price target, driven by historical patterns and macroeconomic tailwinds like Fed rate cuts .

The Kumo breakout and growing whale accumulation in projects like Maxi Doge ($2M presale) suggest DOGE is entering a speculative sweet spot. Even short-term bearish pressure at $0.24 is being absorbed by institutional buying, with 687.9M tokens exchanged in the $0.234–$0.237 support zone . This is not a retail-driven rally—it's a coordinated institutional push.

Strategic Implications: Underweight TRX, Overweight DOGE

The data is clear: TRX's Mayer Multiple is a bear trap, not a bull catalyst. Its derivatives activity reflects a market in retreat, with negative funding rates and slumping volume eroding confidence. Conversely, DOGE's derivatives surge and ETF optimism indicate a liquidity-driven bull phase, where speculative capital is aligning with macroeconomic catalysts.

For investors, this means:
1. Underweight TRX: Positioning in TRX carries elevated downside risk. While the 1.2x Mayer Multiple offers temporary support, the lack of derivatives participation and declining network activity make it a high-risk, low-reward play.
2. Tactically Overweight DOGE: The $1.40 price target is ambitious but achievable given the current momentum. Derivatives volume and ETF speculation create a self-fulfilling prophecy—buyers are incentivized to enter before institutionalization locks in gains.

Conclusion

The Q3 2025 altcoin landscape is defined by divergent trajectories. TRX's technicals are a cautionary tale of false hope, while DOGE's derivatives and ETF-driven rally signal a new bull cycle. For contrarian investors, the path forward is clear: exit TRX's fragile perch and ride DOGE's rocket ship.

Source:
TRON bulls vs. bears: The $0.37 level could decide it all [https://ambcrypto.com/tron-bulls-vs-bears-the-0-37-level-could-decide-it-all/]
TRX Breaks $0.30 – Is a 32% Tron Rally Inevitable? [https://www.btcc.com/en-US/amp/square/Ambcrypto/781920]
DOGE Price Action Shows 5.7% Swing as Traders Eye 25-Cents Target [https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/09/doge-price-action-shows-5-7-swing-as-traders-eye-25-cents-target]
Mayer Multiples: The Metric That Helps Call Bitcoin Bubbles and Bottoms [https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2019/02/17/mayer-multiples-the-metric-that-helps-call-bitcoin-bubbles-and-bottoms]
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction: Rising ETF Odds Spark Bullish Momentum [https://coinedition.com/dogecoin-doge-price-prediction-rising-etf-odds-spark-bullish-momentum/]