TRUUSDT Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) rose 0.83% over 24 hours, forming a bullish recovery from early weakness.
• Key resistance appeared near 0.0329, with strong volume consolidation observed above 0.0325.
• Momentum improved as RSI crossed the 50 threshold, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment.
• Volatility expanded during the Asian session, with Bollinger Band width widening past 3 standard deviations.
• Notional turnover surged on the final 3-hour candle, suggesting accumulation ahead of the US session.

Market Summary

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened on 2025-09-17 at 0.0312 and reached a high of 0.0338 before closing at 0.0334 on 2025-09-18. Over the past 24 hours, the pair has shown a modest but consistent upward bias, with total volume reaching 13,070,994.0 and notional turnover estimated at $427,282. The price structure suggests a developing base above 0.0325 that may offer near-term support.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a multi-wave rally from 0.0311 to 0.0338, with consolidation forming above 0.0325. A strong bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.0327–0.0336 during the early morning hours, followed by a tight distribution pattern near 0.0329. Key support appears at 0.0325 and 0.0322, while resistance is now at 0.0329 and 0.0333. A breakdown below 0.0322 could trigger further downside, whereas a close above 0.0329 may confirm a new bullish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging at around 0.0327, indicating a potential short-term equilibrium. The 50-period line is beginning to slope upward as price consolidates above it, which is a positive sign for momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 0.0323 is holding firm as support, while the 200-period MA at 0.0320 continues to act as a psychological floor for the pair.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive on the Asian session, with a bullish crossover above the signal line and a rising histogram, suggesting growing bullish momentum. RSI has moved out of oversold territory and is currently at 52, indicating a shift in market sentiment. If RSI can cross the 58 level with a strong close, it may signal a continuation of the rally. Overbought conditions could emerge if the price sustains above 0.0333.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly during the Asian and European sessions, with the Bollinger Band width increasing from ~0.0001 to ~0.0004. Price has spent most of the 24-hour window within the upper band, showing increased risk of a pullback. A contraction near 0.0325 may signal a pause in the move higher, while a sustained break above 0.0329 could extend the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover have aligned well during the key bullish moves, especially in the final 3 hours of the 24-hour window. A large volume bar at 0.0329 confirmed the price action, suggesting that buying pressure is strong. However, divergence emerged on the 0.0333–0.0334 range, where volume waned slightly, indicating potential distribution. Watch for follow-through volume on any retest of 0.0325 or a breakout above 0.0329.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the latest 15-minute swing from 0.0311 to 0.0338 shows the 38.2% level at 0.0323 and the 61.8% at 0.0328. Price has already tested both levels, with a potential target at 0.0333 for a full retracement. On the daily chart, the 50% level at 0.0323 aligns with current support, reinforcing the importance of that level for near-term stability.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure, a backtest could be designed to evaluate a breakout strategy from the consolidation range between 0.0325 and 0.0329. A long entry could be triggered on a close above 0.0329 with a stop loss placed just below 0.0325. A trailing stop could be set at 0.0327 for risk management. The recent volume and momentum buildup align well with this approach, offering a favorable risk/reward profile if the breakout holds.