Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) Market Overview

• TWT/USDT declined sharply from 1.4043 to 1.3420, forming bearish momentum and breaking key support.
• Volatility increased after 17:00 ET as price dropped below 1.3843, triggering bearish continuation.
• MACD and RSI both signaled oversold conditions by 05:45 ET, hinting at potential consolidation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 17:15–17:30 ET, with volume confirming the breakdown.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, showing increasing uncertainty and price dispersion.

The TWT/USDT pair opened at 1.3855 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.4043 at 16:15 ET, dropped to a low of 1.3379 at 16:00 ET on 2025-10-04, and closed at 1.3454 as of 16:00 ET. Over the 24-hour window, total volume was approximately 16,345,371.0 units and turnover was ~$23,243,724.00, reflecting strong participation during the bearish phase.

The 15-minute chart shows a sharp bearish breakdown from a 1.4043 peak, punctuated by a large-volume bearish engulfing pattern between 17:15 and 17:30 ET. This was followed by a sustained decline that broke through key psychological levels including 1.3843 and 1.3600. A notable bearish continuation was reinforced by a long bearish candle on 17:15 ET, with volume reaching 323,909.0, confirming the breakdown. The price later consolidated near 1.3430–1.3500 in the early hours of 2025-10-04.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price has dropped well below the 20 and 50-period SMAs, indicating strong bearish control. The daily 50/100/200 SMA structure has not yet been updated with today’s close, but intraday momentum favors further consolidation near the 1.3440–1.3500 range. MACD turned bearish during the drop, with negative divergence, and RSI hit oversold levels between 05:45 and 08:15 ET, suggesting possible short-term stabilisation. Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty in the pair.

Key support levels are now at 1.3430, 1.3379, and 1.3325, while resistance is temporarily at 1.3525 and 1.3590. Fibonacci retracements from the 1.4043–1.3379 swing suggest critical levels at 61.8% (~1.3644) and 50% (~1.3710), which may act as potential retest zones. The bearish sentiment appears to be in control, but with RSI near oversold territory, a short-term bounce to test the 1.3500–1.3525 zone could be expected. Traders should watch for volume confirmation of any reversal attempt from the 1.3430 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy focusing on bearish engulfing patterns and oversold RSI conditions, triggered during sharp declines with strong volume confirmation, could yield high-probability short-term trades. A long-term trend-following approach based on 50-period SMA crossovers, combined with Fibonacci retracement levels, may also prove effective for capturing countertrend bounces. Given today’s structure, a potential short trade could be initiated on a close below 1.3430 with a stop above 1.3500. A counter-trend long could also be considered on a break above 1.3525 with a stop below 1.3465.