TRUMPUSDT Market Overview: Sept 23, 2025

• The 24-hour candle opened at $7.63 and closed near $7.67, forming a bullish close within a narrow range.
• A notable volume spike occurred at 06:45 ET with a high of $7.71 and a 15-minute close at $7.70, signaling a potential breakout attempt.
• RSI hovered around overbought levels mid-day but failed to sustain a move above 7.73, indicating short-term resistance.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, with price closing near the upper band, hinting at tightening volatility.
• Total volume reached 1.87M TRUMP, while notional turnover hit $14.28M, suggesting increased interest in the pairing.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether pair (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $7.63 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET and closed at $7.67 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. During the 24-hour window, it reached a high of $7.75 and a low of $7.54, with total volume of 1.87M TRUMP and notional turnover of approximately $14.28M.

Price action unfolded in a wave-like pattern, beginning with a bearish breakdown to $7.56 after 17:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase and a gradual recovery. By late morning on the 23rd, a rally emerged, forming a bullish pattern near $7.70 and $7.71. Key support levels were identified at $7.63 and $7.59, while resistance emerged at $7.68 and $7.71. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 07:30 ET, suggesting a short-term reversal may be forming.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data revealed a series of small bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly around 07:30 ET and 23:45 ET. A doji formed near $7.63 on the 22nd, signaling indecision. Price action also showed a consolidation around the 7.60–7.63 range, which was tested multiple times. The most notable structure occurred in the early hours of the 23rd, where a strong rally pushed price to a 24-hour high of $7.75, forming a potential double-bottom reversal near the 7.68 level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price consistently closed above the 20-period SMA, indicating a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period SMA acted as a dynamic support line, with price bouncing off it during the early morning recovery. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sat just below $7.65, with price above it suggesting a continuation of the short-term uptrend. The 200-period SMA, at $7.59, formed a strong psychological level that may act as a final support if the current rally fails.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into bullish territory during the early hours of the 23rd, aligning with the rally to $7.75. The histogram expanded, confirming the strength of the move. RSI reached overbought territory multiple times, peaking at 70 and 75, but failed to break 7.73—suggesting a potential topping pattern. The combination of a bullish MACD and an overbought RSI indicates that while bullish momentum is present, a pullback may be imminent.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the 23rd, with price closing near the upper band at 07:45 ET. This suggests rising volatility and increased buying pressure. The bands constricted slightly during the early morning hours, indicating a period of consolidation. Price action remained within the bands throughout the session, with no strong breakouts observed—suggesting that volatility is contained but building.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during two distinct timeframes: one at 06:45 ET and another at 06:15 ET, both coinciding with price pushes to key resistance levels. The first spike at 06:45 ET saw volume of 81,362 TRUMP, and the second at 06:15 ET hit 40,549 TRUMP—both confirming the strength of the bullish attempt. Notional turnover mirrored these volume surges, indicating increased conviction. However, volume declined after 10:00 ET, suggesting that momentum may be waning.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour swing from $7.54 to $7.75, key retracement levels emerged at $7.65 (38.2%), $7.68 (61.8%), and $7.71 (78.6%). Price hovered near the 61.8% and 78.6% levels multiple times, failing to break through. This suggests that the $7.71 level may be a critical psychological resistance point, with the 61.8% retracement acting as a potential short-term target for any pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy involving a 15-minute EMA crossover (20 and 50) combined with RSI divergence could provide actionable signals in this market. The strategy would enter longs on a bullish crossover when RSI is above 50 and exits on a bearish crossover when RSI is below 50 or diverges. Given the recent 15-minute EMA crossover and RSI overbought levels, the pair appears to be in a short-term bullish phase. However, the absence of sustained volume at key resistance levels suggests that caution is warranted. The strategy would likely benefit from incorporating a trailing stop below key support levels to protect gains during potential pullbacks.