TRUMPUSDT Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped from $9.55 to $8.149, a 14.7% 24-hour decline.
• High volatility with large swings, especially between 19:30 and 22:15 ET-1.
• Volume spiked during bearish moves but waned during consolidation.
• RSI signaled oversold territory in the final 6 hours.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during key downward moves.

Market Overview

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $8.945 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET-1, surged to a high of $9.55 at 20:00 ET-1, and closed at $8.161 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The total 24-hour volume was 45,257,950.29 and the total turnover was $391,822,516.83. The price action reflects heightened volatility and potential distribution after a short-lived bullish phase.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a key resistance at $9.429 (19:45 ET-1), followed by a breakdown through $9.00 (21:30 ET-1) and subsequent consolidation below $9.00. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 22:15–22:30 ET-1 window, confirming the downward momentum. A doji emerged at 00:15 ET, signaling short-term indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs were in bearish alignment by 21:00 ET-1. The 50-period line crossed below the 100-period SMA around 02:00 ET, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 200 SMA remains below the current price, indicating that the 24-hour move was a correction rather than a trend reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly at 21:00 ET-1 and remained in negative territory for the remainder of the session. The RSI dropped to 29 by 07:00 ET, entering oversold territory, which may indicate a potential near-term bounce, though the momentum has weakened significantly.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the early bearish wave (20:00–22:15 ET-1), with the price touching the lower band at key inflection points. The narrowing of bands in the final 4 hours suggests a potential reversal or consolidation, though a new bearish trend remains likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 734,770 during the key breakdown at 20:00 ET-1, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume dwindled below 100,000 in the final 3 hours, suggesting exhaustion in the downtrend. Turnover confirmed the price move, aligning closely with volume peaks and troughs.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level was observed around $8.52 (50% of the $9.55–$8.149 range), with price testing this level multiple times. A 38.2% retracement (~$8.93) was a key support, which failed to hold during the 22:00–22:15 ET-1 timeframe. These levels may reemerge as pivots in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy aims to identify oversold RSI conditions and hold for 3 days. Given the observed 24-hour RSI drop into the 29–31 range, a signal would likely have triggered near 06:00–07:00 ET. Holding for 3 days could have caught a rebound if the bearish move ended. However, the low volume and weak momentum during the oversold period raise concerns about signal reliability. Future testing may need to incorporate volume thresholds to refine entry conditions.