Trump promete recortes agresivos de las tasas de la Fed para reducir los préstamos hipotecarios

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve will be someone who strongly advocates for lower interest rates. "I'll soon announce our next chairman of the Federal Reserve, someone who believes in lower interest rates, by a lot, and mortgage payments will be coming down even further," Trump stated during a national address. The remark came as part of a broader speech highlighting economic and national security achievements in the first year of his second term.

Trump has been vocal in his calls for lower borrowing costs, particularly for mortgages, but the Federal Reserve's influence on long-term rates is limited. The central bank primarily controls short-term interest rates, while longer-term rates are shaped more by market forces like investor expectations for economic growth and inflation.

The president is expected to announce his choice for Fed chair early next year, with several prominent candidates in the running, including White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Fed Governor Chris Waller.

The Candidates and Their Stances

All of the known finalists advocate for lower interest rates, though none have endorsed the drastic cuts Trump has suggested. The current Fed rate stands at 3.5% to 3.75%, and even the latest appointee, Governor Stephen Miran, has not supported the 1% level Trump has repeatedly proposed according to reports.

Chris Waller, one of the candidates, emphasized during a recent interview that the Fed still has room to cut rates. He noted that the central bank is currently 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral rate, which is the rate that neither stimulates nor slows the economy according to Waller. Waller, who is known for advocating a more moderate pace of rate reductions, added that the job market, while soft, is not "falling off a cliff" according to Waller.

Trump, however, is pushing for a more aggressive stance. He has stated that the U.S. should have "the lowest rate in the world," and he has argued that the next Fed chair should consult with him on setting rates according to Trump.

Market and Analyst Reactions

The prospect of a new Fed chair with a mandate for lower rates has drawn mixed reactions. Kevin Hassett, another top contender, has emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that he would present Trump's views to the Fed but that the committee would have the final say on rate decisions according to Hassett. Hassett's comments come amid concerns from some analysts that his close ties to the administration could make the Fed appear more politically aligned than independent.

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, has emerged as a strong contender in the selection process. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has publicly backed him, and some analysts suggest that Warsh's past criticism of the Fed's overreach in policy matters may appeal to market participants who value central bank autonomy according to analysts. Despite this, others have raised concerns about whether Warsh, while more hawkish in his past tenure, is the best fit for the aggressive rate cuts Trump is demanding according to analysts.

Risks to the Outlook

While Trump and his allies are pushing for a swift and significant drop in rates, Fed watchers caution that such a move could carry risks. The Federal Reserve operates as a committee, with 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee. Even if the chair supports lower rates, consensus will be needed to implement meaningful changes according to reports.

Additionally, the impact of rate cuts on mortgage rates is not straightforward. The Fed's control over short-term rates has limited influence on long-term borrowing costs, which are more tied to investor perceptions and economic expectations according to reports. Mortgage rates, which have remained near 6.3% to 6.4% in recent months, have shown little sign of decline despite the Fed's actions.

What This Means for Investors

Investors are watching closely to see how the Fed's new leadership will approach rate policy. A more aggressive stance could boost equities and real estate markets, but it could also raise concerns about inflation if the economy shows signs of overheating. Meanwhile, bond markets are likely to react to any signals of a leadership shift, particularly regarding the pace of rate cuts.

For now, the central bank appears to be in a transitional phase. With the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell, set to leave in May 2026, the market is bracing for a potential change in direction. However, most analysts believe that any significant shift in policy will depend not only on the chair but also on the broader consensus among Fed officials.