La resiliencia de Trump frente a las aranceles y sus implicaciones para el comercio mundial y los mercados de renta variable

The resurgence of U.S. protectionist policies under the Trump administration has reshaped global trade dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for equity markets. With tariffs on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, energy, and agriculture reaching historic levels, investors must navigate a landscape where domestic industries gain competitive advantages while global supply chains face fragmentation. This analysis explores the strategic positioning of sectors likely to benefit from prolonged protectionist measures, supported by empirical data on corporate earnings, inflationary pressures, and long-term economic implications.

Key Sectors Benefiting from Tariff-Driven Protectionism

1. Steel and Aluminum Producers:
   U.S.-based steel and aluminum manufacturers, including Nucor Corporation (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD), have emerged as direct beneficiaries of tariffs that raise the cost of imported materials. By reducing foreign competition, these policies have driven increased demand for domestic production, with steel prices rising in tandem with import costs.

2. Energy and Fossil Fuels:
   Energy giants like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) stand to gain as tariffs on imported energy sources elevate the relative competitiveness of U.S. producers. The shift toward domestic energy production aligns with broader geopolitical goals of reducing reliance on foreign oil and gas.

3. Agriculture and Food Processing:
   Agricultural companies such as Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Tyson Foods (TSN) may see heightened demand for U.S.-produced grains and meat as imported alternatives become pricier. However, this benefit is partially offset by retaliatory tariffs from major export markets like China and Brazil, which threaten U.S. agricultural exports.

4. Manufacturing and Industrial Equipment:
Domestic manufacturers, including Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere & Co. (DE), are poised to benefit from tariffs that make imported machinery and equipment less attractive. The focus on reshoring manufacturing aligns with national security priorities, particularly in critical infrastructure sectors.

1. Defense and Aerospace:
   The emphasis on domestic production for national security has amplified opportunities for defense contractors. Companies like Lockheed Martin and Boeing are likely to see increased government contracts as the U.S. seeks to insulate critical industries from foreign supply chain risks.

Economic and Market Implications of Prolonged Protectionism

While these sectors gain short-term advantages, the broader economic impact of prolonged tariffs remains mixed. According to Russell Investments, the policies are projected to be neutral for overall economic growth but modestly inflationary, with core PCE inflation rising by approximately 0.3 percentage points. J.P. Morgan Global Research notes that the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 15.8% as of August 2025, up from 2.3% pre-2024, with further increases expected to reach 18–20%.

Corporate earnings, however, appear to benefit. Russell Investments estimates that tariffs could boost S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS) growth by 4 percentage points by 2026, driven by reduced import competition and higher pricing power for domestic producers. Conversely, BlackRock warns that prolonged policy uncertainty may dampen corporate capital spending and delay long-term investments, as businesses grapple with volatile trade rules.

Strategic Investment Positioning

For investors, the key lies in balancing sectoral opportunities with macroeconomic risks. The following strategies emerge from the analysis:
- Overweight Industrial and Energy Sectors: Companies in steel, energy, and manufacturing are well-positioned to capitalize on tariff-driven demand. For example, the steel industry's pass-through of higher input costs to consumers has averaged 45%, indicating strong pricing power.
- Hedge Against Inflation and Policy Risk: With tariffs contributing to inflationary pressures, investors should consider defensive assets like short-term Treasuries and gold, as recommended by BlackRock.
- Monitor Supply Chain Adjustments: Firms adopting nearshoring or dual-sourcing strategies-such as those in chemicals and consumer goods- may mitigate supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs.

Risks and Long-Term Considerations

Despite the immediate benefits, prolonged protectionism carries risks. Higher tariffs could exacerbate inflation, strain global trade relationships, and reduce innovation through reduced competition. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury market faces headwinds as foreign investors reduce holdings, now accounting for just 30% of the market compared to 66% pre-pandemic. Investors must also contend with the potential for retaliatory measures from trade partners, which could disrupt export-dependent sectors like agriculture.

Conclusion

Trump's tariff resilience has created a bifurcated economic landscape, where domestic industries gain short-term advantages while global trade faces long-term fragmentation. For equity investors, strategic positioning in sectors like steel, energy, and manufacturing offers growth potential, but this must be balanced against macroeconomic risks such as inflation and policy uncertainty. As the U.S. continues to recalibrate its trade policies, agility and diversification will remain critical to navigating the evolving market dynamics.