Trump's Tariff Track Record: How 2016 Promises Hold Up

In the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump pledged to impose tariffs on goods imported from countries he deemed to be taking advantage of the United States. As his term comes to an end, it's worth examining how his tariff policies have fared in comparison to his campaign promises.


Trump's tariff policies primarily targeted China and Mexico, with the aim of protecting American jobs and industries. In 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices. In response, China retaliated with tariffs on $110 billion worth of U.S. goods. Additionally, Trump implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from several countries, including Mexico.


While Trump's tariff policies aimed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, the deficit with China actually increased from $347 billion in 2016 to $367 billion in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This suggests that the tariffs did not achieve their intended goal of narrowing the trade imbalance.

Trump's tariffs also had mixed effects on employment in the U.S. manufacturing sector. While some industries, such as steel and aluminum, saw job gains, other sectors, such as agriculture and consumer goods, experienced job losses due to retaliatory tariffs and higher production costs. Overall, manufacturing employment increased by 489,000 jobs during Trump's presidency, compared to a gain of 1.1 million jobs during the Obama administration (2009-2016).


Furthermore, Trump's tariff policies led to higher prices for consumers, as the costs of tariffs were passed on to American households. A study by the Trade Partnership found that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration increased the cost of goods and services for the average American household by $1,314 in 2019.

In conclusion, Trump's tariff policies had limited success in achieving his campaign promises. While some industries and jobs benefited from the tariffs, the overall impact on the U.S. trade deficit, employment, and consumer prices was mixed. As the United States looks ahead to a new administration, it will be important to consider the lessons learned from Trump's tariff policies and develop a comprehensive trade strategy that promotes American interests and economic growth.