Trump's Mass Deportation Plan: Impact on Immigrant Workers and the Economy

In the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, former President Donald Trump has revived his pledge to conduct the largest deportation in American history if re-elected. This article explores the potential economic consequences of Trump's mass deportation plan, focusing on its impact on immigrant workers and the broader economy.

According to the American Immigration Council, around 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the United States, with approximately 7 million of them part of the workforce. A significant proportion of these workers are concentrated in industries such as construction (21%), hospitality (16%), and agriculture (4%). Mass deportation would lead to a labor shortage, potentially increasing wages and prices, and reducing GDP by $1.7 trillion.

Trump's deportation plan could have significant implications for native-born workers in these industries. A study by the American Immigration Council found that deporting 3.4 million construction workers could increase wages by 2.2% and reduce employment opportunities for native-born workers by 2.6%. Similarly, deporting 1.1 million hospitality workers could increase wages by 1.4% and reduce native-born employment by 1.7%.
The potential economic consequences of mass deportation on industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor are substantial. The Center for American Progress estimated that deporting these workers could reduce the GDP by $1.7 trillion, as these industries would face labor shortages and increased costs. Additionally, mass deportation could lead to higher prices for consumers, as fewer workers would drive up wages and production costs.
Trump's mass deportation plan could also affect the demand for and supply of goods and services in the U.S. economy, potentially impacting inflation and GDP growth. A study by the American Immigration Council found that deporting 3.5 million workers could reduce the GDP by $434.7 billion and increase inflation by 0.7%. Additionally, it could lead to a 2.7% increase in the unemployment rate, as fewer workers would be available to meet demand.
Mass deportation could significantly impact the labor force participation rate and overall employment levels. According to the American Immigration Council, undocumented immigrants make up 5.1% of the U.S. workforce, with high concentrations in industries like construction (17%), agriculture (14%), and hospitality (11%). Removing these workers could lead to a labor shortage, driving up wages and potentially increasing inflation. However, it could also reduce the unemployment rate as fewer workers compete for jobs.
Trump's mass deportation plan could have far-reaching consequences for the U.S. economy, particularly in industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor. While the plan aims to address immigration concerns, the potential economic fallout highlights the need for a balanced approach to immigration policy that considers the broader economic implications. As the 2024 election approaches, voters should carefully consider the potential impacts of Trump's mass deportation plan on the economy and the workforce.