La política de “América Primero” de Trump y sus implicaciones para los sectores mundiales de defensa e industria

The U.S. defense and industrial manufacturing sectors are undergoing a strategic realignment under President Trump's 2025 "America First" policy, which prioritizes national security through economic and industrial reforms. This policy, framed as a response to geopolitical threats-particularly from China-has triggered a surge in defense spending, tightened foreign investment controls, and reshaped corporate incentives for defense contractors. For investors, the implications are clear: a reinvigorated focus on U.S. technological sovereignty and industrial capacity is creating both opportunities and risks across defense, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing.

Defense Sector: A $1.5 Trillion Windfall and Corporate Accountability

The cornerstone of the policy is a proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget, which has already driven significant gains for major defense contractors. Shares of companies like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman surged in early 2026 following the announcement, reflecting market confidence in sustained demand for next-generation military systems. This budgetary expansion is not merely a short-term stimulus but a long-term commitment to modernizing the U.S. military's capabilities in areas such as hypersonic weapons, AI-driven logistics, and next-generation aircraft.

However, the administration has also introduced stringent performance metrics for defense contractors. A January 2026 executive order prohibits underperforming firms from engaging in stock buybacks or paying dividends until they demonstrate improved delivery timelines and cost efficiency. This move signals a shift in corporate priorities, forcing contractors like Boeing and General Dynamics to align their financial strategies with operational outcomes rather than shareholder returns. For investors, this creates a dual dynamic: while increased spending boosts revenue potential, it also raises the bar for operational performance, favoring firms with proven track records in complex defense projects.

Aerospace Industry: AI Integration and Trade Surpluses

The aerospace sector is another key beneficiary of the policy, with the U.S. industry generating a $73.9 billion trade surplus in 2024 and contributing $443 billion in economic value. The administration's emphasis on domestic manufacturing has accelerated investments in AI and automation, with Deloitte forecasting $5.8 billion in U.S. aerospace and defense (A&D) spending on AI and generative AI by 2029. This trend is already evident in companies like 3D Systems, which reported a 15% revenue growth in 2025 for its A&D business and anticipates a 20% increase in 2026, driven by demand for U.S.-based 3D printing systems.

The policy's restrictions on foreign-sourced technologies-such as those embedded in the National Defense Authorization Act-have further bolstered domestic aerospace firms. 3D Systems, for instance, is expanding its Colorado facilities to meet growing demand for advanced manufacturing solutions, supported by contracts with the U.S. Air Force. These developments underscore a broader shift toward self-reliance in critical technologies, a theme that is likely to drive long-term growth for aerospace firms with strong R&D capabilities.

Industrial Manufacturing: Derisking and Domestic Resilience

The "America First" policy's focus on industrial manufacturing extends beyond aerospace to broader sectors like biotechnology and advanced materials. By expanding CFIUS jurisdiction to cover greenfield investments and emerging technologies, the administration aims to prevent adversarial nations from accessing sensitive U.S. infrastructure. This has created a regulatory environment where domestic manufacturers-particularly those in semiconductors, rare earth processing, and additive manufacturing-are gaining a competitive edge.

For example, the policy's outbound investment restrictions on sectors like hypersonics and directed energy have curtailed U.S. capital flows into China's military-industrial complex. While this limits short-term profit opportunities for some investors, it also reduces systemic risks associated with overreliance on foreign supply chains. Companies that can scale domestic production of critical materials-such as C3.ai in AI-driven supply chain optimization or RTX Corporation in advanced manufacturing-stand to benefit from this derisking strategy.

Geopolitical and Economic Implications

The administration's dual approach-facilitating investment from allies while restricting adversarial inflows-has broader economic implications. By streamlining CFIUS reviews for allied nations, the U.S. is positioning itself as a hub for secure, high-tech manufacturing, attracting capital from countries like Germany and Japan. This could lead to a new era of "friend-shoring," where supply chains are restructured to align with geopolitical alliances rather than cost efficiency alone.

Conversely, the policy's restrictions on Chinese investments and U.S. outbound capital into China's military-linked sectors are likely to exacerbate trade tensions. However, for investors, this volatility is offset by the long-term stability of a U.S. industrial base that is increasingly insulated from foreign shocks. The 2026 A&D industry outlook, for instance, highlights a "transformative" role for AI and agentic AI in logistics and maintenance, with scaled deployments expected to drive productivity gains.

Conclusion: Strategic Realignment and Investment Opportunities

Trump's "America First" policy represents a strategic realignment of U.S. economic and industrial priorities, with defense, aerospace, and manufacturing at its core. For investors, the key opportunities lie in firms that can navigate this new landscape: those with robust R&D pipelines, strong ties to the Department of Defense, and the operational agility to meet stringent performance benchmarks. While the policy's regulatory and geopolitical risks are non-trivial, the long-term rewards for companies that align with its objectives-technological sovereignty, supply chain resilience, and industrial self-reliance-are substantial.

As the administration moves to implement these policies through regulatory and legislative channels, the next 12–18 months will be critical for identifying which firms can capitalize on the reshaping of the U.S. industrial complex. For now, the market's response-evidenced by surging defense stocks and record trade surpluses-suggests that the "America First" agenda is not just a political slogan but a catalyst for a new era of U.S. industrial dominance.