Trump or Harris: Who Do Voters Trust with the Economy More?

In the 2024 presidential election, the economy remains a top concern for voters. A recent poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News found that 49% of registered voters trust Donald Trump more on the economy, compared to 44% for Kamala Harris. However, a deeper dive into economic indicators and the candidates' proposals reveals a more nuanced picture.

**Economic Records and Policies**

David Wessel, an economist at the Brookings Institution, noted in a 2024 NPR interview that job creation under Trump was robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant increase in unemployment, which subsequently recovered under the Biden-Harris administration. As of 2024, the unemployment rate stands at 3.8%. Wessel attributes this to a combination of factors, including the pandemic's impact and the administration's policies.


Trump's 2017 tax cuts, which reduced corporate and individual tax rates, initially boosted economic growth but had mixed long-term effects. The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service found that the cuts had a modest, temporary impact on GDP, with most of the benefits going to foreign investors and shareholders. Meanwhile, Harris' proposed $3 trillion infrastructure plan could stimulate economic growth in the short term by creating jobs and improving productivity. However, long-term effects depend on the specific projects and their economic viability.

**Inflation and Deficit Concerns**

Voters may be concerned about inflation, employment, and economic growth when considering Trump's and Harris' economic proposals. According to a poll by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 70% of voters are worried about the national debt, which could be exacerbated by both candidates' plans. Trump's proposal to increase military spending and cut taxes could lead to higher deficits, while Harris' plan to expand social programs and increase taxes on corporations and high-income households may also increase the debt. Voters may be looking for a balance between addressing economic issues and managing the national debt.


**Trade Policies and Tariffs**

A recent poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News found that 49% of registered voters trust Donald Trump more on the economy, compared to 44% for Kamala Harris. However, a deeper dive into economic indicators and the candidates' proposals reveals a more nuanced picture. Trump's proposed tariffs, if fully implemented, could lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses, potentially slowing economic growth and exacerbating inflation. Moody's Analytics estimates that an across-the-board 10% tariff could cause a shallow recession, with economic growth stunted by three percentage points in the first two years, unemployment topping 5%, and the S&P 500 taking a 6% haircut. Harris' proposed tax increases, on the other hand, could reduce incentives for investment and work, potentially slowing economic growth. However, they could also help address income inequality and fund social programs, potentially boosting long-term economic growth.

**Leadership Styles and Decision-Making**

Voters' trust in a candidate's economic management is influenced by their perceptions of leadership styles and decision-making abilities. A poll by the Wall Street Journal found that 47% of registered voters trust Trump more on the economy, while 42% trust Harris more. This suggests that voters see Trump's economic leadership as more effective, possibly due to his business background and past economic policies. However, Harris' proposals, such as expanding the Child Tax Credit and increasing support for housing and healthcare, may resonate with voters seeking a more progressive economic approach. Ultimately, voters' trust in a candidate's economic management will depend on their personal values and priorities.

In conclusion, the 2024 presidential election presents voters with two distinct economic visions. Trump's focus on tax cuts, military spending, and immigration enforcement may appeal to those prioritizing economic growth and border security. Meanwhile, Harris' proposals to expand social safety nets and infrastructure investment may resonate with voters seeking a more progressive economic approach. However, voters should consider the potential impacts of each candidate's policies on inflation, employment, and economic growth, as well as their leadership styles and decision-making abilities. By weighing these factors, voters can make an informed decision on who they trust with the economy more.