El plan hipotecario de Trump: Un catalizador de liquidez oculto para las criptomonedas y las acciones

The U.S. housing market has long been a barometer of economic health, but in 2025, President Donald Trump's $200 billion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase plan has emerged as an unexpected wildcard. While the primary goal is to lower mortgage rates and boost housing affordability, the secondary effects of this liquidity injection are rippling far beyond real estate. In a tightening monetary policy environment, where central banks are hiking rates to combat inflation, Trump's intervention could act as a hidden catalyst for re-rating in both equities and cryptocurrencies. Here's how.

The Mortgage Plan: A Short-Term Fix with Long-Tail Implications

Trump's directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in MBS aims to increase demand for mortgage bonds, theoretically lowering rates by pushing bond prices higher. According to a report by , this move has already driven the 30-year fixed mortgage rate down to 5.99% post-announcement. While skeptics argue the $200 billion injection is modest compared to the $9 trillion MBS market- estimating a potential 0.125% to 0.25% rate reduction-the psychological and market signaling effects are significant.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has confirmed Fannie and Freddie's compliance, framing the purchases as a "quantitative easing-style" intervention. However, the plan's broader implications extend beyond housing. By stabilizing mortgage rates, the administration is indirectly supporting consumer spending and construction activity, both of which are critical for equity markets.

Liquidity Spillovers: From Mortgages to Risk Assets

The key to understanding this plan's secondary effects lies in liquidity spillovers. Historically, the Federal Reserve's MBS purchases during quantitative easing (2020–2022) reduced mortgage spreads by 0.4%, according to the Kansas City Fed. While Trump's $200 billion is smaller in scale, it operates in a market where liquidity is already constrained by Fed tightening. This creates a "liquidity vacuum" that even modest injections can partially fill.

For equities, the knock-on effect is twofold. First, lower mortgage rates could boost home prices, increasing household wealth and consumer spending. Second, sectors tied to housing-construction, home improvement, and real estate-stand to benefit directly. Indirectly, a stronger housing market could bolster broader equity valuations by improving corporate earnings and investor sentiment.

Cryptocurrencies, however, present a more nuanced case. The March 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) demonstrated how liquidity shocks in traditional finance can cascade into crypto markets, destabilizing stablecoins like USDC. Conversely, liquidity injections-such as Trump's MBS purchases-can stabilize these spillovers. By reducing mortgage rate volatility, the plan may indirectly support crypto markets by mitigating broader financial system stress.

Trump's Pro-Crypto Playbook: Regulatory Clarity as a Catalyst

Beyond liquidity, Trump's administration has actively positioned the U.S. as a global leader in digital finance. The GENIUS Act, which established a federal framework for stablecoins, and the President's Working Group Report on digital assets, have created a regulatory environment conducive to crypto adoption. This has spurred record M&A activity in 2025, with $8.6 billion in crypto deals, including Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit and Kraken's purchase of NinjaTrader.

These regulatory moves are not isolated. They align with Trump's broader "America First" strategy, which includes industrial revival and tax reforms. By reducing uncertainty, the administration is attracting institutional capital into crypto, a trend amplified by global M2 money supply growth (up $5 trillion in Q1 2025 alone). This liquidity, combined with Trump's pro-business rhetoric, has driven Bitcoin to $108,000 in mid-December 2024, despite Fed rate hikes.

Tightening Policy: A Double-Edged Sword

The Fed's tightening cycle complicates this narrative. Higher rates typically suppress risk assets by increasing borrowing costs and reducing discount rates for future cash flows. However, Trump's MBS purchases and fiscal stimulus create a counterbalance. By injecting liquidity into the mortgage market, the administration is effectively offsetting some of the Fed's tightening effects, preserving capital availability for risk assets.

This dynamic is evident in Bitcoin's performance. While the Fed's September 2024 rate cut triggered a rally, a January 2025 executive order on a national crypto reserve initially caused a correction. Yet, the broader trend-driven by liquidity and regulatory clarity-has kept Bitcoin and Ethereum on an upward trajectory.

The Bigger Picture: Liquidity Trumps Policy Noise

The ultimate takeaway is that liquidity, not political rhetoric, drives asset re-ratings. Trump's mortgage plan, while modest in scale, is part of a larger liquidity strategy that includes fiscal stimulus, trade protectionism, and crypto-friendly regulation. These factors are creating a "liquidity overhang" that supports both equities and cryptocurrencies, even as the Fed tightens.

For investors, the lesson is clear: in a world of constrained liquidity, even small interventions can have outsized effects. Trump's MBS purchases may not solve the housing affordability crisis, but they are a reminder that liquidity-whether from central banks or political agendas-remains the lifeblood of financial markets.