Trump's Golden Fleet and the Resurgence of U.S. Shipbuilding: A Defense Equity Valuation Play

The U.S. Navy's pivot to the FF(X) program under President Donald Trump's "Golden Fleet" initiative marks a pivotal moment in the nation's industrial and military strategy. By shifting from the troubled Constellation-class frigate to a proven design by Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), the Navy aims to accelerate ship production, reduce costs, and counter China's dominance in global shipbuilding. This strategic realignment, coupled with a broader emphasis on small surface combatants and unmanned systems, is reshaping defense equity valuations and positioning shipbuilder stocks for outsized returns.

The FF(X) Program: A Blueprint for Cost Efficiency and Industrial Revival

The cancellation of the Constellation-class frigate program-marred by delays, cost overruns, and design complexities-has been replaced by the FF(X) program, which leverages HII's Legend-class National Security Cutter design. This shift is not merely technical but strategic: the Legend-class, already in service with the U.S. Coast Guard, offers a mature platform to mitigate risks and accelerate delivery timelines. The first FF(X) hull is slated for launch in 2028, with the Navy aiming to produce these ships using a lead yard strategy at Ingalls Shipbuilding, followed by competitive follow-on production across multiple yards.

The FF(X) is designed to be a modular, adaptable combatant capable of surface warfare, unmanned systems operations, and rapid mission reconfiguration. By prioritizing domestic production, the program reduces reliance on foreign supply chains and aligns with Trump's broader industrial policy to revitalize the American shipbuilding sector. HII's existing capacity to build multiple ship classes and modernize fleets further underscores its role as a linchpin in this revival.

Budget Allocations and the Path to a 381-Ship Fleet

While specific budget figures for the FF(X) program from 2025–2028 remain opaque, the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan provides a broader context. The FY2025 budget requested $1.17 billion for the seventh Constellation-class frigate, reflecting a procurement cost of roughly $1.1–$1.2 billion per ship. However, the FY2026 budget does not allocate funds for new frigates, signaling a pivot to the FF(X) program. The Navy's 30-year plan anticipates an average annual shipbuilding cost of $40 billion (in 2024 dollars) through 2054, with a focus on expanding the fleet to 381 manned ships and 134 large unmanned platforms.

This long-term commitment to shipbuilding is critical for defense equity valuations. Morgan Stanley has highlighted that U.S. defense stocks are undervalued relative to projected budget growth, with companies like L3Harris Technologies and General Dynamics upgraded to Overweight. The FF(X) program, as a cornerstone of the Golden Fleet, could drive demand for shipbuilders and related defense primes, particularly as the Navy seeks to close the U.S.-China shipbuilding gap.

The U.S.-China Shipbuilding Gap: Geopolitical Urgency as a Catalyst

China's dominance in global shipbuilding is a stark reality. By 2024, China captured 53% of the commercial shipbuilding market, while the U.S. accounted for just 0.1%. State-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) has leveraged cost efficiency, industrial policy, and scale to outpace U.S. competitors, enabling China to modernize its navy and expand its influence over global maritime logistics. The U.S. Trade Representative has responded with measures to reduce reliance on Chinese-built ships, including port call fees and cargo handling restrictions.

This imbalance has profound geopolitical implications. China's ability to convert commercial shipbuilding capacity into military assets-such as its extensive port network and digital logistics platforms-poses a strategic threat to U.S. supply chain security. The Golden Fleet initiative, by prioritizing domestic production and small combatants, aims to counter this threat while fostering a more distributed and resilient fleet architecture.

Defense Equity Valuations: Policy-Driven Demand and Supply Constraints

The FF(X) program and the broader Golden Fleet strategy create a compelling case for defense equity investors. Shipbuilder stocks like HII are poised to benefit from sustained government contracts, while the industrial revival narrative adds a layer of long-term value. Morgan Stanley notes that defense primes trade at a 15% discount to the market on 2027 P/FCF, suggesting room for re-rating as budget growth materializes.

Moreover, the U.S. shipbuilding industry's limited capacity-compounded by decades of decline-creates supply-side constraints that could amplify returns for firms like HII. The SHIPS for America Act, which imposes fees on ships built at CSSC-owned yards, further incentivizes domestic production and strengthens the competitive position of U.S. shipbuilders.

Conclusion: A Golden Opportunity for Investors

Trump's Golden Fleet initiative is more than a military modernization plan; it is a strategic response to China's shipbuilding dominance and a catalyst for U.S. industrial revival. The FF(X) program, with its focus on cost efficiency, domestic production, and modular design, exemplifies this vision. For investors, the combination of policy-driven demand, geopolitical urgency, and constrained supply positions shipbuilder stocks for outsized returns. As the Navy moves toward a 381-ship fleet and integrates unmanned systems, the defense sector's long-term growth trajectory appears firmly intact.