La elección de Trump para el cargo de presidente de la Reserva Federal: impacto en la política de tasas y la estabilidad del mercado

The selection of a Federal Reserve Chair under President Donald Trump has become a focal point for investors and economists, as the appointment could reshape monetary policy and market dynamics in 2026. With former Fed governor Kevin Hassett emerging as the leading contender, the potential for a Trump-aligned leadership raises critical questions about the balance between political influence and central bank independence. This analysis examines the risks and opportunities posed by such a shift, drawing on historical precedents, recent political interventions, and the policy stances of key candidates.

The Candidates and Their Policy Stances

Kevin Hassett, currently the director of the National Economic Council, has positioned himself as a staunch advocate for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. According to a Bloomberg report, Hassett has explicitly stated that the Fed should consider rate cuts larger than the standard 25 basis points if economic data supports such action, emphasizing "plenty of room" for aggressive easing. His alignment with Trump's preference for dovish policy is evident, as the president has publicly criticized current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates "quickly enough" to boost borrowing and investment according to Politico.

Hassett's potential appointment contrasts with the more cautious approach of Powell, who has prioritized inflation control over rapid rate reductions. Meanwhile, other contenders like Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller represent alternative perspectives. Warsh, a former Fed governor, has called for a reevaluation of recent monetary policies, framing inflation as a policy choice rather than an inevitability. Waller, known for his dissenting votes on rate decisions, could introduce a more hawkish counterbalance but remains a less prominent figure in the race according to Fortune.

Political Influence and Historical Precedents

The risk of political interference in Fed decisions is not hypothetical. During the 1970s, President Richard Nixon's pressure on Fed Chair Arthur Burns to adopt expansionary policies contributed to a surge in inflation, with studies suggesting that such political shocks could permanently raise the U.S. price level by over 8%. This historical example underscores the dangers of prioritizing short-term political gains over long-term economic stability.

Recent analyses indicate that Trump's administration has already engaged in similar tactics. A report by the Center for American Progress highlights the Trump administration's threats to remove Fed officials, including Powell and Governor Lisa Cook, as well as the controversial dual appointment of Stephen Miran to both the Fed and the White House. These actions have eroded public confidence in the Fed's independence, a principle critical to maintaining market credibility. As noted by The Hill, even perceived political pressure can distort financial market expectations, as seen in Trump's past public advocacy for rate cuts via social media.

Risks to Market Stability and Inflation Control

A Trump-aligned Fed Chair, particularly one like Hassett, could accelerate rate cuts in 2025 and 2026, potentially destabilizing markets. While lower rates may stimulate growth in the short term, they risk reigniting inflationary pressures if not carefully calibrated. According to a 2024 study cited by Xponance, political pressure-even when resisted by the Fed-can lead to higher long-term inflation, as market participants lose trust in the central bank's ability to act independently. This dynamic was evident during the Nixon era, when inflation became entrenched despite subsequent policy corrections.

Moreover, the Fed's credibility hinges on its perceived independence. As Reuters reports, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has emphasized the need for a swift appointment, but the process itself has drawn scrutiny over potential politicization. If markets perceive the Fed as a tool of partisan agendas, long-term interest rates and inflation expectations could rise, undermining the central bank's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment according to the Federal Reserve History.

Opportunities for Growth and Policy Innovation

Despite these risks, a Trump-aligned Fed Chair could also present opportunities. Hassett's advocacy for growth-oriented policies, such as leveraging artificial intelligence and productivity gains, mirrors Alan Greenspan's approach during the 1990s tech boom. If executed prudently, such strategies could foster innovation-driven economic expansion without compromising stability. Additionally, a dovish Fed might support sectors reliant on low borrowing costs, such as real estate and infrastructure, potentially boosting equity markets in the near term according to U.S. News.

### Conclusion: Balancing Act for Investors
The appointment of a Trump-aligned Fed Chair represents a pivotal moment for U.S. monetary policy. While Hassett's emphasis on rate cuts and economic growth aligns with Trump's agenda, the broader risks of political interference and inflationary pressures cannot be ignored. Investors must weigh the short-term benefits of accommodative policy against the long-term costs of eroded central bank credibility. As the Fed navigates this transition, maintaining institutional independence will remain paramount to ensuring both market stability and macroeconomic resilience.