La reforma de la producción de defensa de Trump: implicaciones para las acciones de aviación y defensa

The Trump administration's 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), with its $901 billion funding package, marks a seismic shift in U.S. defense policy. By prioritizing domestic manufacturing, streamlining procurement, and imposing financial restrictions on contractors, the overhaul reshapes capital allocation strategies and operational dynamics for aerospace and defense firms. For investors, the question is whether these changes create opportunities in undervalued defense stocks or signal risks for capital-intensive players.

Regulatory Pressure and Capital Allocation

The NDAA's most disruptive element is Executive Order 14265, which curtails financial payouts for contractors with over-budget or delayed programs. This directly targets dividends, buybacks, and executive compensation, aiming to redirect capital toward production and R&D. For companies like Boeing, which spent $80 billion on buybacks and dividends between 2003 and 2019, the implications are stark. Boeing's recent struggles-compounded by the 737 MAX crisis and pandemic-related losses-have already forced a pivot from shareholder returns to liquidity preservation according to Reuters. However, the new rules could exacerbate tensions between management and investors, particularly as Boeing's CEO received $18.4 million in 2024 compensation.

RTX Corporation, by contrast, appears better positioned. Its 2025 P/E ratio of 37x reflects confidence in a $251 billion backlog and robust defense sales growth. The company's commercial aviation segment generates strong free cash flow, enabling debt reduction and strategic investments. RTX's ability to offset Trump-era tariff costs-initially projected at $500 million-demonstrates operational flexibility. For GE Aerospace, the administration's emphasis on domestic manufacturing aligns with its $1 billion investment in U.S. facilities and supply chains, a move that could enhance margins in its Defense & Propulsion segment, which saw 6% revenue growth in Q2 2025.

Sector Volatility and Operational Adaptations

The NDAA's acquisition reforms, including Portfolio Acquisition Executives (PAEs) and streamlined Other Transactions Agreements (OTAs), aim to accelerate procurement. This favors firms with agile R&D pipelines. RTX's Raytheon division, for instance, reported a 10% sales increase in Q3 2025, driven by Patriot systems and hypersonic technologies. GE Aerospace's investment in hypersonics test infrastructure further underscores its alignment with these priorities according to company reports.

Boeing, however, faces headwinds. Its defense revenue, while significant, is dwarfed by its commercial aviation exposure. The company's R&D spending has lagged peers, and its reliance on buybacks-a $40 billion commitment between 2013 and 2018 may now be constrained. This could amplify sector volatility, particularly if delays in programs like the KC-46 tanker persist.

Valuation Multiples and Investor Sentiment

The NDAA's focus on cost discipline is reshaping valuation metrics. RTX's premium P/E ratio (37x) and P/B ratio of 17.4x for GE Aerospace reflect investor optimism about long-term backlogs and geopolitical demand. However, Boeing's P/E and P/B ratios remain muted, partly due to its commercial aviation woes and regulatory scrutiny. The administration's push to reduce compliance burdens for smaller contractors could also disrupt market concentration, favoring nimble firms over traditional giants.

For investors, the key differentiator is adaptability. RTX and GE Aerospace have demonstrated resilience through diversified revenue streams and strategic R&D investments. Boeing, meanwhile, must navigate a dual challenge: aligning with Trump's cost-conscious agenda while restoring credibility in both commercial and defense markets.

Conclusion: Opportunity or Warning?

The Trump defense overhaul creates a bifurcated landscape. For companies like RTX and GE Aerospace, the emphasis on domestic production and R&D offers a tailwind, particularly as global tensions drive demand for advanced systems. Their ability to leverage backlogs and reinvest in innovation positions them as potential long-term winners.

Boeing, however, represents a cautionary case. Its historical reliance on buybacks and executive pay structures now clash with regulatory priorities. While its defense contracts provide some stability, operational inefficiencies and regulatory scrutiny could weigh on valuations.

In this environment, investors should favor firms with strong R&D pipelines, diversified revenue bases, and alignment with the administration's industrial base goals. The defense sector's volatility, while elevated, may yet reward those who bet on resilience over short-term shareholder returns.