Las políticas de Trump hasta 2025 y sus implicancias para el mercado de bonos y productos básicos de EE. UU.

The passage of President Trump's 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) has triggered a seismic shift in U.S. economic and immigration policy, with profound implications for equity and commodity markets. By allocating $45 billion to expand immigration detention, $32 billion for enforcement, and $75 billion for border militarization, the bill has created both winners and losers across sectors. This analysis examines the short- to medium-term investment opportunities in industries poised to benefit from these policies, while also addressing the broader economic risks they entail.

Equity Market Opportunities: The Deportation-Industrial Complex

The private prison sector stands to gain the most from Trump's immigration agenda. CoreCivic and GEO Group, two leading operators of immigration detention centers, have already seen revenue surges. CoreCivic reported $538.2 million in Q2 2025 revenue, a 9.8% year-over-year increase, while GEO Group's revenue hit $636.2 million, up 5%. These gains are driven by ICE's expanded detention capacity, which aims to hold 116,000 non-citizens daily-a 265% increase over current levels. Historical trends reinforce this pattern: CoreCivic and GEO Group stocks rose 56% and 73%, respectively, following Trump's 2016 election, and both surged 3% after the OBBBA's passage.

Technology firms like Palantir are also beneficiaries. The company's data analytics tools are critical to ICE's deportation operations, securing lucrative government contracts. Meanwhile, defense contractors involved in border wall construction-such as those receiving $47 billion in CBP funding over four years-are positioned to profit from infrastructure expansion. These industries collectively form what critics call a "Deportation-Industrial Complex," where corporate interests align with policy-driven demand according to analysis.

Commodity Market Pressures: Labor Shortages and Tariffs

While equity sectors tied to enforcement and detention thrive, Trump's policies are straining labor-intensive industries. Agriculture, construction, and energy face acute labor shortages due to mass deportations and the cancellation of work permits. For instance, 70% of U.S. farm labor is immigrant-dependent, and the National Foundation for American Policy estimates a 6.8 million labor force reduction by 2028, driving up food prices by 14.5%. Similarly, construction is grappling with a 450,000-worker shortfall, exacerbating project delays and cost inflation.

Tariffs on Chinese goods further compound these challenges. U.S. soybean exports to China fell 30% in 2025, forcing farmers like North Dakota's Tyler Stafslien to halve soybean acreage. Energy and construction materials face rising input costs from tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported machinery, with effective U.S. tariff rates projected to peak at 12% by mid-2025. These pressures are likely to persist, with FWD.us projecting a $2,150 annual increase in household costs for goods and services by 2028.

Strategic Investment Considerations

For equity investors, the private prison and technology sectors offer clear tailwinds, supported by policy-driven demand and historical performance. However, these gains come with ethical and political risks, including public backlash against mass detention and potential regulatory shifts. Commodity investors must weigh the long-term drag on agriculture and construction against short-term volatility from tariffs and labor shortages. Energy markets, meanwhile, face dual pressures from immigration-driven inflation and trade war-driven input costs.

In conclusion, Trump's 2025 policies are reshaping U.S. markets through a mix of corporate windfalls and economic headwinds. While the deportation-industrial complex presents compelling equity opportunities, investors must remain cautious about the broader macroeconomic risks-particularly in labor-intensive sectors.