Take Five: Trump's First 100 Days – Trade Wars and Market Turbulence

The first 100 days of Donald Trump’s 2025 presidential term have been marked by a whirlwind of protectionist trade policies, market volatility, and geopolitical tension. From historic tariff hikes to retaliatory measures from global allies, his administration’s aggressive economic agenda has reshaped investment landscapes—and not always for the better.

Trade Wars Escalate: The Tariff Tsunami

Trump’s signature strategy—slapping tariffs on imports—has reached unprecedented levels. By April 2025, U.S. tariffs averaged 22%, the highest since the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, which historians blame for deepening the Great Depression. The goal: to “protect” domestic industries and shrink trade deficits.

But the consequences have been swift and severe. China retaliated with tariffs as high as 125% on U.S. goods, while Canada, the EU, and Mexico reduced purchases of American exports. Meanwhile, Asian nations like Japan and South Korea forged new trade pacts to bypass U.S. tariffs, further isolating American businesses.

Market Meltdown: Stocks in Freefall

The stock market has been the first casualty. In early 2025, a $10 trillion wealth loss occurred in just three days as investors panicked over erratic tariff announcements. By April, the S&P 500 entered a bear market, with tech and manufacturing sectors hardest hit.

The automotive industry, for instance, faces a crisis. Tariffs on imported steel and aluminum drove up production costs, pushing car prices higher. reveals a 20% decline as consumers balk at rising prices. Trump’s dismissive attitude—“I couldn’t care less”—has done little to reassure buyers.

Housing and Inflation: The Hidden Costs

Beyond stocks, everyday Americans are feeling the pinch. Housing costs have surged by an estimated $4,600 annually per family, driven by tariffs on Chinese-made building materials. Meanwhile, inflation creeps upward as businesses pass tariff costs to consumers.

Geopolitical Fallout: Allies Turned Enemies

The policies have also fractured alliances. NATO’s unity is crumbling as European nations explore nuclear partnerships with Russia and China. Even Saudi Arabia’s influence over U.S. policy—exposed via the PGA-LIV Golf merger—has sparked ethical concerns.

Where to Invest? A Cautionary Tale

For investors, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Key sectors to avoid:
- Automotive: Higher costs and stagnant demand.
- Manufacturing: Retaliatory tariffs abroad are slashing exports.
- Energy: Despite Trump’s “energy dominance” rhetoric, conflicts of interest (e.g., Elon Musk’s ties to the administration) cloud credibility.

Consider instead:
- Consumer Staples: Defensive plays as discretionary spending dries up.
- International Stocks: Emerging markets benefiting from U.S.-China trade tensions.

Conclusion: A Recipe for Recession?

The data is unequivocal. Trump’s 2025 policies have ignited a trade war with no clear end in sight. With global markets reeling, retaliatory tariffs escalating, and consumer confidence plummeting, the risk of a prolonged recession grows.

The $10 trillion stock market loss, 125% Chinese tariffs, and $4,600 annual cost burden on families are not mere statistics—they’re warning signs. Investors ignoring these trends may find themselves on the wrong side of history.

As the White House doubles down on unilateralism, the wisest strategy may be to hedge against volatility and seek shelter in stable, globalized sectors—before the next tariff bombshell drops.