El límite del 10% en las tasas de interés de las tarjetas de crédito por parte de Trump: Resiliencia del sector y oportunidades de inversión estratégicas

The proposed 10% credit-card interest rate cap by President Donald Trump, set to take effect on January 20, 2026, has ignited a fierce debate between consumer advocates, lawmakers, and financial institutions. While the policy aims to curb exploitative lending practices, its potential impact on the credit-card industry's profitability and resilience demands a nuanced analysis. This article examines the regulatory landscape, industry responses, and strategic adaptations by major players like JPMorgan Chase, American Express, and Bank of America, while identifying investment opportunities in a sector poised for transformation.

The Regulatory Landscape and Bipartisan Support

Trump's one-year cap, a revival of a 2024 campaign promise, aligns with the 10 Percent Credit Card Interest Rate Cap Act (S.381), introduced in February 2025 by Senator Bernie Sanders and co-sponsored by lawmakers across the political spectrum, including Senator Josh Hawley and Representative Anna Paulina Luna. The bill, which would sunset on January 1, 2031, includes civil penalties and a private right of action for consumers, signaling a shift toward stricter oversight of credit-card pricing. Proponents argue the cap could save Americans $100 billion annually in interest payments, though critics warn it risks reducing credit availability for lower-income borrowers and pushing them toward predatory alternatives like payday loans.

Industry Pushback and Revenue Diversification

The banking sector has responded with alarm. The American Bankers Association and allied groups have lobbied against the cap, arguing it would destabilize credit-card business models reliant on high-interest margins. For instance, JPMorgan Chase reported a 9.73% net yield on credit-card loans in 2024, a margin that would shrink dramatically under a 10% cap. To mitigate this, banks are accelerating revenue diversification strategies. JPMorgan's Q1 2025 earnings highlighted a 2% year-over-year increase in its Payments business, driven by non-interest income streams. Similarly, Bank of America's Q1 results showed a 5.9% revenue growth, partly attributed to lower deposit costs and higher-yielding investments, as CEO Brian Moynihan emphasized a "diverse business model" to weather macroeconomic uncertainties.

American Express, less reliant on interest income than its peers, has focused on expanding its high-margin rewards programs and premium card offerings. Its Q1 2025 results reflected a 6% year-over-year increase in card member spending and a 20% rise in card fee growth, driven by millennial and Gen Z consumers. The company's ability to balance profitability with customer retention positions it as a potential beneficiary of regulatory shifts, even as it faces pressure to maintain margins.

Strategic Adjustments and Market Share Dynamics

The proposed cap has also spurred operational adjustments. Banks are exploring expanded fee structures, enhanced loyalty programs, and partnerships with fintechs to offset lost interest revenue. For example, JPMorgan Chase's 2025 strategic outlook emphasized a 2% overweight in equities and a geographic bias toward the U.S., leveraging AI-driven investment strategies to bolster returns. Meanwhile, Bank of America's trading revenue surged, with a 16% return on allocated capital in its sales and trading operations, reflecting a pivot toward fee-based income.

Market share shifts are already emerging. American Express's focus on premium customers has allowed it to outperform in a K-shaped economy, where high-income consumers benefit from enhanced perks while lower-income borrowers face tighter credit access. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, however, remain exposed to regulatory risks, with their earnings sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and policy uncertainty.

Investment Opportunities and Sector Resilience

For investors, the credit-card sector presents both risks and opportunities. Companies with diversified revenue streams-such as American Express's fee-based model or JPMorgan's investment banking and wealth management divisions-are better positioned to navigate regulatory headwinds. Conversely, institutions heavily reliant on interest income, like Bank of America, may need to accelerate strategic pivots to maintain profitability.

The broader market context also favors resilience. The six largest U.S. banks are projected to generate $157 billion in annual profits under Trump's administration, driven by corporate dealmaking and AI-driven cost efficiencies. However, this optimism hinges on the ability of banks to adapt to a regulatory environment that prioritizes consumer protection without stifling credit availability.

Conclusion

Trump's 10% interest rate cap represents a pivotal moment for the credit-card industry. While the policy's immediate impact remains uncertain, its long-term implications will likely drive innovation in revenue diversification and customer engagement. For investors, the key lies in identifying firms that can balance regulatory compliance with profitability, leveraging their strengths in fee-based income, technological integration, and market differentiation. As the sector evolves, strategic adaptability-not just regulatory outcomes-will define investment success.