TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) Market Overview

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $0.0283 but reversed with selling pressure, closing near $0.0267.
• Strong volume spikes observed during the downward shift, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound in near term.
• Volatility increased with a widening range, but prices remain below the 20-period moving average.
• A key support area forms around $0.0264, with a potential counter-trend bounce likely if volume confirms.

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at $0.0276 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and climbed to a high of $0.0283 before reversing and closing at $0.0267 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total 24-hour volume was 26,945,515.0, with notional turnover of $735,374.55. The pair displayed a bearish reversal after a sharp intraday rally.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick formation on TRUUSDT resembles a large bearish engulfing pattern, with a sharp price reversal from intraday highs. The 15-minute OHLC data show several bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, with a doji forming near $0.0279 at 19:45 ET, signaling indecision. Key support appears to be forming around $0.0264, with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the earlier rally aligning closely with this level. Resistance remains intact at $0.0280, where buying interest initially surged but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging lower, with price now trading below both, indicating a bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is at $0.0275, with the 200-period at $0.0277, suggesting a broader downward bias. The 100-period MA is near $0.0276, further reinforcing a bearish alignment. Price remains below all major MAs, indicating short-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is trending lower, reflecting waning bullish momentum. The RSI has dipped below 30 into oversold territory, which may indicate a potential rebound from the $0.0264–0.0266 support range. However, RSI divergence remains absent, and the MACD histogram shows no signs of narrowing, suggesting bearish continuation could follow.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the sharp intraday drop, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow contract. Prices have since tested the lower band multiple times, with the current close sitting just above it. The bands now sit between $0.0261 and $0.0273, with price hovering near the lower boundary. This suggests increased bearish bias but also potential for a pullback to the mid-band as short-term exhaustion sets in.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish reversal phase, particularly between 03:00 and 06:00 ET, with one 15-minute bar (178,1118.0 volume) contributing significantly to the downward move. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, with a total of $5.4M in turnover observed from 02:45 to 05:45 ET. Price and turnover aligned during the decline, confirming the bearish trend. However, the lack of buying volume during rebounds suggests weak reversal potential for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the intraday move from $0.0267 to $0.0283, the 0.618 level aligns with $0.0272, which was tested twice during the decline. The 0.382 level at $0.0276 also acted as resistance before the price dropped. On the daily chart, the 0.618 retracement of a prior rally is near $0.0264, coinciding with a recent support cluster. This level is likely to be a key watchpoint for potential bounces or further breakdowns.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish reversal and alignment of Fibonacci support levels with key volume spikes, a backtesting strategy could be designed to enter short positions when price breaks below the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.0264, with a stop-loss placed just above the 0.382 level at $0.0272. A take-profit target could be set at $0.0261, the lower Bollinger Band. This setup leverages confirmed bearish momentum and high volume during the breakdown, aligning with the observed intraday behavior.