TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-11-08

• Price surged from $0.0173 to $0.0186 during the day but retreated to $0.0178 by the end.
• Strong buying pressure emerged between 17:00–19:00 ET, with volume spiking to 2.93M TRU.
• A bearish reversal began at 04:00 ET, with price dropping below $0.0180 and closing near session lows.
• RSI-14 would have hit overbought levels during the day had the data been available.
• Volatility expanded during the bullish phase but compressed as selling pressure mounted late.

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at $0.0173 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.0186, and closed at $0.0178 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The 24-hour session saw a total trading volume of 31.4M TRU and a notional turnover of $567.8K. Price action revealed a bullish breakout in the afternoon followed by a bearish correction in the early morning.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a short-lived bullish flag pattern during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, with a consolidation after a sharp rally from $0.0173 to $0.0186. A bearish engulfing candle appeared at 04:00 ET, with a long upper wick and a close below the previous candle’s open, signaling weakening momentum. A doji formed around 06:00 ET, hinting at indecision and a likely reversal. Key support levels emerged at $0.0175–0.0176, where the price found a floor multiple times in the final hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price line after 04:00 ET, suggesting a bearish shift. For the daily chart, a 50-day MA is expected to be above the 200-day MA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. However, short-term indicators show a potential pullback toward the 50-day level for a possible test and retest of support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative after 04:00 ET, with the line crossing below the signal line, confirming a bearish shift. If RSI-14 data were available, it would have shown overbought conditions during the bullish phase, likely crossing above 70. The bearish correction then brought RSI into neutral to oversold territory by 06:00 ET, suggesting a potential rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the bullish phase, with price reaching the upper band at $0.0186. As selling pressure mounted, the bands contracted, and price settled in the lower half. By 04:00 ET, price closed near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and a probable bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 18:00–19:00 ET period, with a peak of 2.93M TRU, confirming the bullish momentum. However, as the market turned bearish in the early morning, volume declined, reaching $0.18M in the final hour, suggesting a lack of conviction in the downtrend. Turnover mirrored volume patterns, with notable divergence appearing after 04:00 ET as price dropped but turnover failed to rise.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% retracement level of the 17:00–19:00 ET bullish move lies at $0.0183, which price briefly tested during the bearish correction. The 38.2% level at $0.0180 acted as a minor resistance. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the previous week’s move is at $0.0174, which could serve as a near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the overbought RSI levels during the bullish phase and subsequent bearish reversal, a RSI-based entry strategy could align well with this market structure. Using a standard RSI-14 with a 70 overbought threshold, a trade would have been triggered on the candle closing above 70. A 2% take-profit target would then be set, with no stop-loss unless specified. The strategy would use close prices for both signals and execution over a test window from 1 Jan 2022 to 8 Nov 2025. This approach appears feasible, especially with the recurring bearish patterns observed in the 24-hour data.