TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) Market Overview: 2025-10-13

• TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) traded in a tight range, with bearish consolidation toward the end of the 24-hour window.
• Price closed near its 24-hour low, indicating a lack of upward momentum and buyer hesitation.
• Volatility remained subdued, with most candles staying within a narrow $0.0201–$0.0206 band.
• On-balance volume increased during key price declines, hinting at distribution activity.
• No strong reversal patterns formed, but a potential support zone appears around $0.0202.

The TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) pair opened at $0.0197 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.0209, and closed at $0.0204 by the same time on 2025-10-13. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 25,561,204 TRU and a notional turnover of $515,026. The price action suggests a lack of conviction in either direction, with frequent retracements failing to establish clear trends.

Over the past 24 hours, TRUUSDT traded between $0.0195 and $0.0209, suggesting limited volatility. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remain closely aligned, indicating a neutral bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are in a descending order, suggesting a bearish trend. The MACD line has been flat and crossed below the signal line, reinforcing a potential bearish signal. RSI values have remained in the mid-range between 45–55, indicating a lack of strong overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands remained narrowly constricted for most of the 24-hour period, reflecting low volatility. Price has spent much of the session within the middle band, with occasional tests of the upper and lower bands. A contraction in the bands has yet to be followed by a breakout, suggesting the market is still waiting for a catalyst. The upper band currently sits at $0.0209, and the lower band at $0.0201, forming a critical range to watch for potential breakouts or breakdowns in the next 24 hours.

Volume and turnover data show a mixed picture. While volume increased during key price declines (e.g., after 19:30 ET on 2025-10-12), it remained subdued during bullish attempts. Notional turnover also spiked during sell-offs, suggesting a possible shift in market sentiment toward distribution. A divergence between price and volume during the final hours of the session could signal weakening demand or a potential reversal. However, given the lack of strong candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, doji), any reversal signs remain unconfirmed at this stage.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart highlight key support at $0.0202 (38.2%) and $0.0199 (61.8%). On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels align with the 20- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting these are critical zones to watch. If price breaks below $0.0202, further support may appear at $0.0199. Conversely, a breakout above $0.0209 could bring attention to the $0.0212 level as a short-term resistance target.

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying and acting on Morning-Star candlestick patterns, which could serve as a potential entry signal for long positions. The TRUUSDT pair shows a lack of strong morning or evening star patterns over the past 24 hours, indicating the market has not yet entered a clear reversal phase. A confirmed Morning-Star formation, if it appears, would need to occur with increasing volume and a close near the upper end of the pattern’s range. Until then, the strategy may remain on hold. However, the current setup appears more suitable for a range-trading or breakout strategy.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtest strategy seeks to identify and act on Morning-Star candlestick patterns to generate buy signals, holding the position for five trading days. To implement this strategy, a valid Morning-Star pattern must form with confirmation in the following candle, ideally with a volume spike. The performance of this strategy would depend on selecting the correct ticker symbol—likely “TRUUSDT” or a variant used by the specific data feed. Once the correct symbol is confirmed, a backtest can be run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13 to evaluate the strategy's historical effectiveness.