TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) Market Overview

• TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) declined 5.2% in 24 hours, with bearish momentum resuming after a failed recovery attempt
• Key support at ¥49.8–49.64 held briefly but failed to halt the downward trend
• Volatility surged in early hours, with turnover reaching ¥171,495 during sharp declines
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price dropped below the lower band into oversold territory
• MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum and weakening bulls

Over the last 24 hours, TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at ¥49.92 on 2025-09-04 at 16:00 ET and closed at ¥50.13 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of ¥50.21 and a low of ¥48.84. Total trading volume was 731,138 TRX, with a notional turnover of ¥36,767,189. The price action and technical indicators suggest bearish pressure has resumed after a brief rebound.

Structure & Formations

TRXJPY tested a key support zone between ¥49.8 and ¥49.64 in the early hours of 2025-09-05, where a small bearish engulfing pattern formed. This signaled a continuation of the downtrend. A notable bearish divergence emerged in the RSI, which failed to form higher lows while price briefly made higher lows around ¥49.77–49.80. A long lower shadow candle at ¥49.77 showed strong bear pressure despite a brief attempt at a reversal. A doji candle formed near ¥49.80, indicating indecision before a renewed decline. The price action suggests traders are cautious and bearish sentiment remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are bearish, with the 20-period line crossing below the 50-period line (death cross) in the early hours of 2025-09-05. The price closed below both lines during most of the session, indicating bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period SMAs have diverged significantly, with price currently below both lines, reinforcing the bearish structure. The 100-period SMA on the daily chart is also a strong resistance area.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early hours of 2025-09-05 and has remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed expansion as price fell toward ¥48.84, signaling strong bearish energy. The RSI dropped below 30 in the midday hours, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to rebound above 40. This suggests a lack of buying interest and that the bearish bias is likely to persist in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp decline from ¥50.10 to ¥48.84. Price closed at ¥50.13 near the upper band at 12:00 ET, suggesting a temporary bounce. However, the midday rally into the upper band appears to lack conviction. The band width widened during the early hours, signaling increased volatility and potential for further movement. The price is currently near the upper band, suggesting a short-term reversal may be in play, though long-term bearish momentum remains.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline from ¥49.94 to ¥48.84, peaking at ¥171,495 in the 15-minute interval around 14:30–14:45 ET. This was a notable spike compared to earlier volumes. Notional turnover also increased significantly during this period, confirming the bearish move. However, volume during the midday rally to ¥50.13 was relatively thin, suggesting a lack of buying interest. The divergence between price and volume may signal a potential exhaustion of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from ¥49.94 to ¥48.84, the 38.2% level is at ¥49.43, and the 61.8% level is at ¥49.19. Price is currently near ¥50.13, far above these levels, indicating a potential short-term rebound. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the larger move from ¥50.10 to ¥48.84 is at ¥49.48. These levels could act as key supports or resistances in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting TRXJPY when the 20-period SMA crosses below the 50-period SMA (death cross) and the RSI drops below 30, confirming oversold conditions. This would be accompanied by a bearish engulfing pattern or a long lower shadow candle, indicating strong bear pressure. Stops could be placed above the 20-period SMA, and targets set at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels for short-term exits. This strategy aligns with the current market structure, where price appears to have broken below key support levels and momentum remains bearish.