TRON/Yen Market Overview for 2025-10-23

• TRXJPY rose 4.48% over 24 hours, closing at 49.26 JPY after a volatile rally.
• Key support at 48.60 JPY held, but price failed to confirm a breakout above 49.53 JPY.
• Volume spiked during late-night rally, confirming strength in higher levels.
• RSI near overbought territory suggests caution, with potential for near-term correction.

Market Opening and Closing Summary

On 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, TRXJPY opened at 48.88 JPY, reached a high of 49.53 JPY, and closed at 49.26 JPY on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session recorded a total volume of 230,402.78 TRX and a notional turnover of 11,366,662.40 JPY.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong upward impulse from a 48.60 JPY support level, which held during a key 22:30–23:30 ET rally. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 23:45 ET, followed by a morning continuation with a 01:30–02:30 ET rally to 49.53 JPY. A bearish divergence appeared between 08:00–10:30 ET, with prices consolidating after a failed breakout attempt.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA remained above the 200-period MA on the daily chart, indicating an ongoing uptrend. Price remained above all three MAs throughout the session, though momentum slowed as price approached the upper Bollinger Band.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the early morning session, with a bullish crossover occurring at 01:30 ET. RSI climbed into overbought territory (70+) by 05:45 ET and remained near 65–70 for the remainder of the session, suggesting an overbought condition that may not be sustainable.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 00:00–03:00 ET window, with the upper band reaching 49.53 JPY. Price remained within the upper 1/3 of the bands for most of the session, with the upper band acting as a dynamic resistance level. A contraction phase began after 09:00 ET, suggesting potential for a breakout or a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 00:00–03:00 ET rally, with 70,000 TRX traded at peak. Turnover reached a 24-hour high of 3.4 million JPY at 02:30 ET. A divergence appeared between volume and price during the 08:00–10:30 ET consolidation phase, with volume declining while prices drifted lower—suggesting weakening bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

A recent 15-minute swing from 48.60 to 49.53 shows price retreating to the 61.8% level at 49.20–49.25 JPY, where it consolidated ahead of a possible bounce. Daily retracement levels suggest a key support at 48.78 JPY (38.2%) and resistance at 49.53 JPY (100%).

Backtest Hypothesis

The absence of native TRXJPY data for technical indicators like MACD and RSI introduces a challenge in backtesting. A viable alternative would be to use TRX-USD prices from a major exchange like Binance and convert them into JPY using the USDJPY FX rate. This method preserves the integrity of the TRX-USD price while introducing a secondary layer of FX exposure. Alternatively, accessing TRX/JPY data directly from an exchange like Bitbank would offer a more accurate representation of the pair’s behavior. If we proceed with the TRX-USD and USDJPY method, the resulting synthetic TRXJPY would allow for consistent application of MACD and RSI across historical data.