TRON/XRP Market Overview (TRXXRP): 2025-10-03 Daily Summary

• Price drifted lower in a bearish consolidation, breaking below key support at 0.1130.
• High volume sell-offs emerged around 0.1120, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions by 0.1118, but price failed to rebound.
• Volatility remained compressed within Bollinger Bands, pointing to potential breakout.
• Late-day buying pressure attempted a reversal but failed to sustain above 0.1128.

TRON/XRP (TRXXRP) opened at 0.1151 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1120 by the same time the following day. The 24-hour low reached 0.1111, with total volume of 307,853.9 and turnover of 34,555.3. A bearish drift unfolded amid thin volume during the early hours, but a sharp decline took hold around 19:45 ET, breaking below 0.1130.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a bearish breakdown from the 0.1130-0.1135 range, a key horizontal support-turned-resistance. The 19:45 ET candle formed a dark cloud cover pattern, confirming bearish sentiment. The 0.1118-0.1120 zone appears to be a critical support level, as several candles formed doji and spinning tops around this level, suggesting indecision. A potential bullish reversal could emerge from this level if volume picks up on the next upward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in a death cross formation, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period MA remains above the price, suggesting continued downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits well above the 100 and 200-period MAs, with the price currently below all three, indicating a long-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence as price continued lower while the histogram widened. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 at 0.1118–0.1120, but no significant bounce followed, implying exhausted bearish momentum. However, without a sustained rebound above 0.1130, the bearish bias is likely to persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained relatively compressed throughout the day, with price staying close to the mid-band. However, the recent breakdown below the lower band and the failure to bounce off it suggests a possible expansion of the lower range. A strong move above the mid-band could signal a short-term reversal, while a break below the lower band may extend the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:45–20:30 ET window, with the 19:45 candle showing 17,546.5 volume and 0.1112 turnover. This marked the largest single-candle volume event of the day. However, price failed to reverse, suggesting bearish conviction. A divergence between volume and price is evident during the 22:00–23:00 ET window, where higher turnover did not accompany a corresponding price move. This points to weak buyer participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.1151–0.1111 swing, the 38.2% retracement sits at 0.1133, and the 61.8% at 0.1129. The 0.1129 level has been tested multiple times and appears to be a key psychological threshold. If the price stabilizes near this level, it could attract short-term buyers. A breakdown below 0.1120 may test the next support at 0.1111.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup, a potential short-term backtest strategy could be to initiate a long position on a bullish reversal pattern forming above 0.1120, confirmed by a close above the 20-period MA and a positive RSI divergence. A stop loss below 0.1118 and a target at 0.1130 could be used. This approach would leverage the observed volatility contraction and Fibonacci support levels for a mean reversion trade.