TRON/XRP Market Overview

• Price declined 0.53% in 24 hours, from 0.1299 to 0.1239
• Key support tested near 0.1225 after a bearish breakdown from 0.128
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bounce
• High volume observed at key turning points, confirming bearish momentum
• Volatility expanded during a sharp selloff, expanding Bollinger Bands width

TRON/XRP (TRXXRP) opened at 0.1299 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1239 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.13 and a low of 0.1223. Total 24-hour volume reached 2,275,086.7, while total turnover (notional value) was approximately 282,328.6 XRP. Price action shows a dominant bearish bias amid strong downward momentum and key support levels in focus.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours exhibited a key breakdown from the 0.128 resistance cluster, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower wick at 0.1276. A series of lower highs and lower lows emerged after the 19:30 ET breakdown, indicating bearish continuation. A key support level at 0.1225 was tested twice and held, but failed to show a strong bounce, suggesting it may be a temporary floor.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, with a negative crossover forming at 20:30 ET. RSI fell to 28 by 04:45 ET, hinting at oversold conditions. MACD remained negative throughout most of the period, with only brief divergence signs during the 03:00–04:00 ET consolidation. Momentum remains bearish, with no clear reversal signals yet.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 19:00–20:30 ET sell-off, indicating heightened volatility. Price fell to the lower band at 0.1225 before rebounding slightly. The bands remain wide, signaling ongoing uncertainty and potential for either a continuation or a countertrend move from the 0.1225 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown at 19:30 ET, with a 58,608.1 volume candle pushing price down to 0.1271. Subsequent volume remained high during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. However, a volume divergence was observed during the 03:00–04:00 ET consolidation, with falling prices and higher volumes suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 0.128–0.1225 swing identified key levels at 0.1252 (38.2%) and 0.1238 (61.8%). The 0.1238 level was briefly tested but failed to hold as a support, with price breaking below it after 10:30 ET. The next Fibonacci target for bearish continuation lies at 0.1215.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and key Fibonacci levels identified, a backtest strategy could be built using a 5% stop-loss below key support levels. The candlestick patterns observed, particularly the bearish engulfing and breakdown from resistance, suggest high-probability entries for short positions. To refine the strategy, confirmation from the 20-EMA and RSI divergence could add additional filtering rules to avoid false signals during consolidation periods.