TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) Market Overview – October 28, 2025

• TRX/USDT declined from 0.3004 to 0.2972, with bearish momentum intensifying near 0.2983.
• Intraday volume spiked during the downward phase, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Key support at 0.2972 held, but RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions could reverse.
• Volatility increased as price moved between Bollinger Band midlines and recent lows.
• A potential bullish reversal pattern emerged at the 0.2972–0.2974 zone.

Over the last 24 hours, TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.2983 on October 27 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.3004, a low of 0.2960, and closed at 0.2974 as of October 28 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 232,737,466.5 units, while notional turnover amounted to ~$69,160,646 based on weighted average pricing.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish bias after a failed attempt to break above 0.3004, with a decisive breakdown to 0.2960–0.2972. A bullish reversal pattern emerged at 0.2972–0.2974, as price found support and consolidated. A key support level is forming around 0.2972, while 0.3004 appears to be a short-term resistance. Doji and small-bodied candles suggest indecision and potential for a reversal in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed below the 50-period SMA (SMA50), indicating a bearish short-term bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (SMA50) is above the 100 and 200-period SMAs, signaling a longer-term neutral to slightly bullish trend. Price closed below the daily SMA50, which could act as a dynamic resistance in the coming 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. However, RSI has entered oversold territory (~29.7), suggesting a potential short-term bounce. If the RSI fails to break above 40, the bearish trend could continue. A bullish crossover on the MACD and a RSI rebound above 40 may indicate a near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within a narrowing Bollinger Band range before the breakdown, signaling low volatility. Following the drop below 0.2983, volatility expanded, and price moved to the lower band at 0.2960–0.2972. A retest of the midline at 0.2987 could provide a key signal. If price closes above this level, the volatility contraction could be interpreted as a setup for a rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the decline from 0.3004 to 0.2960–0.2972, indicating strong bearish participation. Turnover confirmed the price movement during the breakdown phase. However, volume dropped after the 0.2972–0.2974 consolidation, suggesting a potential exhaustion of bearish pressure. A divergence in volume during a bullish countertrend could signal an important turning point.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent 0.2960–0.3004 swing show that 0.2972 corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level, acting as a strong support. The 50% retracement at 0.2982 is currently a dynamic resistance. If the price breaks above this level with confirmation in volume, it may continue toward the 61.8% level at 0.2996, setting up a potential reversal pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of RSI data, we adapt the strategy to use price-based signals. A modified backtest using a 14-period moving average cross (short-term 20SMA vs. long-term 50SMA) can be implemented with the available data. A crossover to the bullish side (20SMA above 50SMA) could serve as an entry trigger, while a cross below would signal an exit. This eliminates dependency on RSI and aligns with the observed structure and volume patterns. Given the recent bearish momentum, the backtest would likely remain in a short bias until a confirmed bullish crossover occurs.