TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-30

• TRON/Tether traded with a sharp intraday drop and partial recovery, closing at 0.2917.
• Key support tested at 0.29 and rejected, while resistance at 0.2965–0.297 appears to hold on retests.
• Volatility surged during the 18:45–19:30 ET window, with a massive candle dropping from 0.2957 to 0.2923.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions briefly, but price failed to confirm a strong bounce.
• Turnover spiked during the bearish move but faded as bulls regained partial control in the final hours.

TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.2957 on 2025-10-29 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.2974, and bottomed at 0.2903 before closing at 0.2917 on 2025-10-30 12:00 ET. The pair saw total volume of 239,886,284.96 and notional turnover of $69,009,559.93 over the 24-hour period. A sharp bearish shift emerged during the late New York session, testing key support levels, followed by a partial rebound into the early morning.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish breakout from the 0.2965–0.297 resistance cluster on October 29 around 18:45 ET, followed by a deep pullback to test 0.2903 by October 30 at 14:00 ET. A bullish rejection formed near that level, marked by a long lower wick and a narrowing range, suggesting short-term support. Key resistance appears to be retesting the 0.2965–0.297 area, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed during the October 29 18:45–19:15 ET window. A doji formed at 0.293 on October 30 13:45 ET, suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs both trended downward during the late October 29 to early October 30 session, reflecting bearish bias. Price briefly crossed above the 20-period line during the October 30 08:00–10:00 ET recovery phase but failed to sustain above the 50-period SMA. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period SMAs were both in bearish alignment, with the 200-period SMA acting as a distant floor near 0.2900.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence during the October 29 19:00–20:30 ET move lower, with price dropping while the MACD histogram narrowed. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 during the October 30 13:45–14:00 ET low, but the failure to close above the 0.293 level suggests bearish continuation. A short-lived bullish MACD crossover occurred near 0.2930 on October 30 09:00–10:30 ET, coinciding with a minor countertrend rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the October 29 18:45–19:15 ET bearish move, with price dropping from above the upper band to nearly touch the lower band by October 30 14:00 ET. The bands had contracted modestly in the preceding 24 hours, suggesting potential for a breakout. Price closed near the middle band on October 30, indicating no immediate consolidation following the sharp drop.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late October 29 18:45–19:30 ET and early October 30 00:00–02:00 ET sessions, confirming the bearish breakout and subsequent rally. Turnover surged in step with volume, with the largest single 15-minute candle (18:45–19:00 ET) showing a turnover of $1,755,284 on a close of 0.2943. Divergence appears in the October 30 13:45–15:00 ET window, where volume dropped despite a minor price rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 0.2957–0.2903 move, the 38.2% retracement level sits at 0.2933, and the 61.8% level at 0.2944. Price failed to hold above either level, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the October 28–30 move is at 0.2947 and is currently being tested.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI readings observed during the 24-hour period, a one-day short strategy triggered on the bearish engulfing pattern could have been activated. This would involve shorting the pair on the open of the next session following the pattern’s formation. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.2965–0.297 resistance level, with a target near the 0.2900–0.2903 support. The large volume and strong bearish momentum during the move make this a compelling setup for a test, particularly with the 50-period SMA acting as a dynamic guide for trend confirmation.