TRON/Ripple Market Overview for 2025-09-11

• Price surged from 0.1127 to 0.1153 on heavy volume, showing strong bullish momentum.
• A bearish divergence appeared late in the session amid lower lows and higher volume.
• Volatility expanded midday, with the pair trading inside a tightening Bollinger Band before breaking out.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the morning push above key resistance at 0.1148.
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting possible short-term correction.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, the TRON/Ripple (TRXXRP) pair opened at 0.1127, reaching an intraday high of 0.1169 and a low of 0.1127, before closing at 0.1153. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 90,174.2 units, with a notional turnover of $10,497.25 (assuming $1 = 1 unit for TRXXRP).

Structure & Formations

The TRXXRP pair displayed a strong bullish reversal from 0.1135–0.1137, forming a bullish engulfing pattern during the early morning hours. This pattern was accompanied by a sharp increase in volume, signaling a shift in sentiment. Later in the session, a bearish divergence emerged between price and volume after the 16:00 ET candle, where price made a lower low but volume increased. The 0.1153–0.1148 range appears to be a key resistance zone, with the 0.1145–0.1148 area forming support, as seen in multiple bounces and consolidation periods.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bullish crossover with the price above both, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. On the daily time frame, the 50-period MA is at 0.1143, the 100-period MA at 0.1140, and the 200-period MA at 0.1137—indicating the price remains above all major averages, with a bullish alignment across the moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive and is crossing above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The RSI reached overbought territory (70+) during the afternoon breakout, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation phase. However, the sustained volume during the rally implies that bullish pressure could persist. A drop in RSI below 60 would signal caution, especially if it occurs without confirmation from volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early afternoon as the pair broke out of a tight Bollinger Band contraction. The price currently sits just above the upper band, at 0.1153, with the band width indicating a phase of high volatility. This expansion may signal a continuation of the bullish trend or a possible retracement into the band's core.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning rally, peaking at 6,731.2 units in the 07:15–07:30 ET candle as the pair broke above 0.1150. Notional turnover spiked to $763.07 during this period. Later in the session, despite a bearish divergence in price, volume remained strong, indicating that the bearish move may be met with support. A drop in volume with a decline in price could signal exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.1150–0.1169 range corresponds to the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.1127–0.1169 swing. The 0.1153 level is the 61.8% retracement, which has acted as a strong resistance, with the price bouncing twice from that level. On the daily swing, the 0.1145–0.1154 area represents a key confluence of support and Fibonacci levels, likely to hold in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the bullish engulfing pattern observed in the morning hours as an entry signal, with a stop-loss placed below 0.1145 and a take-profit target at 0.1169. Given the volume confirmation and alignment of moving averages, this pattern had a high success rate in similar market conditions. Additionally, a short-term bearish trade could be considered if RSI drops below 60 with divergent volume as a confirmation signal. Integrating MACD and Fibonacci retracement levels would refine trade timing and risk management, particularly in volatile periods like the morning breakout.