TRON/Ripple Market Overview (2025-09-05 12:00 ET)

• TRXXRP declined by 0.13% over 24 hours, closing near session lows.
• Price broke below key 15-min support at 0.1193, with bearish engulfing patterns observed.
• RSI entered oversold territory, but volume increased as price dropped, signaling potential follow-through.
• Volatility expanded near the session close as price dipped to 0.1174, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• A large candle at 0.1183–0.1174 suggests exhaustion in the short-term bearish move.

On September 5, 2025 at 12:00 ET, TRON/Ripple (TRXXRP) opened at 0.1192, peaked at 0.1202, and bottomed at 0.1174 before closing at 0.1186. Total 24-hour volume reached 390,409.4, and notional turnover was $46,432.75. A bearish 15-min structure has emerged, with increasing bearish momentum and diverging volume patterns.

Structure & Formations

Price tested the 15-min support level at 0.1193 repeatedly before breaking down decisively, suggesting a short-term bearish shift. A bearish engulfing pattern at 18:45 ET and a large bearish candle at 09:45 ET indicate growing bearish sentiment. A doji formed near 0.1174 after a sharp drop, signaling potential exhaustion or consolidation. Key resistance levels appear at 0.1197–0.1202, while supports are now at 0.1185–0.1174.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are bearishly aligned, with price below both. The 50-period MA at 0.1195 acts as a short-term resistance. On a daily scale, the 50/100/200-period SMAs are converging downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price appears unlikely to reverse without clearing the 20-period SMA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 02:00 ET and crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory (around 29) following the 09:45 ET selloff, but failed to trigger a rebound, indicating weak buying interest. A divergence between price and RSI suggests caution for further downward movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart and closes above it, while placing stop-loss below the prior swing low. This would align with the strategy's goal of capturing short-term bullish momentum. Conversely, short positions are triggered when price breaks below the 50-period SMA and closes below it, with a stop-loss above the recent high. Given today’s bearish divergence and failure to reclaim 0.1195, the short-biased leg of the strategy would have triggered early in the session and remained active. The 09:45 ET selloff aligns well with the short entry rule, and continued weakness below 0.1186 could confirm its validity for the next 24 hours.