TripAdvisor Tops Q4 Estimates; JPMorgan Cautious on 2025 Outlook

TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, beating estimates with earnings per share of $0.30, a 42.86% surprise over the $0.21 projection. Revenue hit $411 million, topping forecasts by 2.75%. Despite the solid performance, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth remains Underweight on the stock, citing multiple headwinds for the coming year.

Holiday timing, tough comparisons, and foreign exchange rates are expected to weigh on the first-quarter guidance. Management expects 2025 growth to be back-half weighted due to hotel meta's tough pricing comparisons in the first half. Anmuth noted that 2026 could bring a turnaround with acceleration expected across top and bottom lines.

TripAdvisor's experiences and dining platforms, Viator and TheFork, continue to grow, with each registering double-digit increases in revenue in the fourth quarter. More than half of TripAdvisor's revenue came from these segments, highlighting their increasing importance to the company's overall performance.



However, the core brand's transformation from hotel meta-search to travel planning is still in its early days and is weighing on revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the near term. Management projects full-year revenue growth of 5%-7% in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margins compressing by around 50bps at the high end.

The Liberty Tripadvisor Holdings merger is still on track for second-quarter completion, but Anmuth cut 2025 and 2026 EBITDA projections by 5% and 7%, respectively, sticking to his $15 price target. Technically, TRIP stock is in moderately bearish territory, trading below its eight-day and 20-day simple moving averages. However, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs suggest a bullish tilt, and the MACD reading of 0.43 indicates bullish sentiment.

In conclusion, while TripAdvisor's fourth-quarter results showed resilience, near-term headwinds and margin pressures keep JPMorgan on the sidelines. With the stock trading below key averages and growth weighted toward the back half of 2025, TRIP remains a wait-and-see story for now. Investors should closely monitor the company's performance and the broader market conditions to make informed decisions about their investments.