Trip.com (TCOM) Surges 3.29% Amid Analyst Upgrades and Bullish Technicals – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Trip.com (TCOM) trades at $78.15, up 3.29% intraday, nearing 52-week high of $78.65
• Analysts upgrade TCOM to 'Buy' as 10 Wall Street firms target $81.25 average price
• Technicals show bullish MACD (1.25) and RSI (69.74) near overbought territory

TCOM’s sharp intraday rally has captured market attention as the stock defies a weak travel sector. With analysts upgrading the stock and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, investors are scrambling to decipher whether this is a breakout or a short-lived spike. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and elevated options activity suggest a pivotal moment for the travel giant.

Analyst Upgrades and Strong Buy Signals Drive TCOM Higher
TCOM’s 3.29% surge is fueled by a wave of analyst upgrades and favorable technicals. Ten Wall Street firms have set a $81.25 average price target, with Bank of America raising its target to $85. The stock’s MACD (1.25) and RSI (69.74) indicate strong momentum, while the 200-day MA at $66.43 is far below current levels. Analysts cite Trip.com’s low debt-to-equity ratio (0.06) and expanding global travel demand as catalysts. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($78.65) has also triggered speculative buying, with options volume surging in at-the-money calls.

Travel Services Sector Mixed as TCOM Defies Trend
While TCOM soars, the broader travel sector remains fragmented. Sector leader Booking Holdings (BKNG) fell 1.5% on concerns over post-holiday booking slumps. Conversely, TCOM’s 3.29% gain highlights its outperformance, driven by its diversified travel ecosystem and aggressive digital expansion. Unlike peers like Expedia (EXPE) and Airbnb (ABNB), which face margin pressures, Trip.com’s bundled services and low-cost structure position it as a sector laggard’s outperformer.

Options and ETFs to Watch: Leveraged Plays on TCOM’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.25 (bullish crossover)
• RSI: 69.74 (overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: $69.02 (lower) to $77.05 (upper)
• 200-day MA: $66.43 (far below price)

TCOM’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at $70.14 and resistance at $78.65. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and elevated options activity (e.g., TCOM20260116C80) indicate a high-probability breakout scenario. For leveraged exposure, consider the following options:

• TCOM20260116C80
- Strike: $80 | Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 32.71% (moderate) | Leverage: 142.33% | Delta: 0.296 | Theta: -0.2746 | Gamma: 0.115
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($82.06), intrinsic value = $2.06 per share. High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for short-term bullish bets.

• TCOM20260320C80
- Strike: $80 | Expiration: 2026-03-20
- IV: 32.11% (moderate) | Leverage: 20.60% | Delta: 0.485 | Theta: -0.0506 | Gamma: 0.0367
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($82.06), intrinsic value = $2.06 per share. Higher liquidity (turnover: 168,661) and moderate gamma make this a safer mid-term play.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TCOM20260116C80 for a short-term breakout above $80, while TCOM20260320C80 offers a balanced leveraged play for a sustained rally.

Backtest Trip.com Stock Performance
The performance of Trip.com (TCOM) after an intraday surge of at least 3% from 2022 to the present has shown a tendency to drift lower over the following month. The backtest reveals an average decline of approximately -6.5% after 30 days, with a win-rate around 31%. This indicates that while TCOM may experience a positive reaction to strong intraday gains, it is more likely to face downward pressure in the short term thereafter.

TCOM’s Bullish Momentum Gains Traction – Position for a Breakout
TCOM’s 3.29% surge is underpinned by analyst upgrades, strong technicals, and a favorable sector position. With the stock nearing its 52-week high and options activity surging, the next key level to watch is $80. If TCOM breaks above this, the average analyst target of $81.25 could be swiftly reached. Meanwhile, sector leader Booking Holdings (BKNG) fell 1.5%, highlighting TCOM’s outperformance. Investors should monitor the $70.14 support level and consider leveraged options like TCOM20260116C80 for a potential breakout trade.