Trip.com Surges 2.66% on Citi Backing and Tourism Boom – What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• TCOM pre-market rose 2.5% to $76.99, driven by Citi’s bullish report on domestic tourism.
• Domestic scenic ticket bookings surged fourfold YoY, with cross-border travel outperforming.
• 10 Wall Street analysts rate TCOM as 'Buy,' with an average price target of $81.25.
• Intraday price hit $77.605, up 2.66% from $75.15 close, amid rising short interest (1.64%).

Trip.com’s sharp intraday rally reflects a confluence of strong sector fundamentals and analyst optimism. With domestic tourism rebounding and cross-border travel gaining momentum, the stock’s 2.66% surge aligns with Citi’s upgraded outlook. Short-term technicals and options activity further underscore the bullish sentiment, positioning TCOM as a key player in the post-holiday travel boom.

Citi’s Bullish Outlook and Tourism Surge Drive TCOM’s Rally
Trip.com’s intraday surge is directly tied to Citi’s upgraded research report, which highlighted robust domestic tourism demand and cross-border travel growth. The firm’s 'Buy' rating, coupled with a nine-day Spring Festival holiday in 2026, has stoked investor confidence. Meanwhile, the company’s New Year’s travel report revealed a fourfold year-on-year increase in domestic scenic ticket bookings, signaling strong consumer spending. These factors, combined with 10 'Buy' ratings from analysts and a 14.69% rise in short interest, have fueled the stock’s 2.66% rally.

Travel Services Sector Gains Momentum as Expedia Rises 2.92%
The Travel Services sector is showing broad strength, with sector leader Expedia (EXPE) rising 2.92% intraday. Trip.com’s 2.66% gain aligns with the sector’s upward trajectory, driven by post-pandemic travel recovery and extended holiday periods. While TCOM’s rally is more directly linked to Citi’s tourism analysis, the sector-wide optimism underscores a broader trend of renewed consumer confidence in travel spending.

Options and ETF Strategies for TCOM’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.69 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.38, Histogram: 0.32
• RSI: 69.79 (overbought), 52W High: $78.65, 52W Low: $51.35
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $74.68, Middle $71.94, Lower $69.20
• 200D MA: $66.19 (below current price)

TCOM’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with key resistance at $78.65 and support at $71.94. The stock’s 2.66% intraday gain, coupled with a 14.69% rise in short interest, indicates strong near-term momentum. For options traders, the TCOM20260116C75 and TCOM20260220C80 contracts stand out due to their high leverage ratios and liquidity.

• TCOM20260116C75: Call, Strike $75, Expiry 1/16, IV 29.59%, Leverage 27.22%, Delta 0.71, Theta -0.239, Gamma 0.0859, Turnover 56,614
• TCOM20260220C80: Call, Strike $80, Expiry 2/20, IV 29.19%, Leverage 36.68%, Delta 0.39, Theta -0.056, Gamma 0.0482, Turnover 293,072

TCOM20260116C75 offers a high leverage ratio (27.22%) and strong gamma (0.0859), making it ideal for capitalizing on short-term volatility. With a 76.88% price change ratio, this contract benefits from TCOM’s current momentum. TCOM20260220C80 provides moderate delta (0.39) and high liquidity (293,072 turnover), positioning it well for a sustained rally. A 5% upside to $81.00 would yield a $6.00 payoff for the $75 call and $1.00 for the $80 call, reinforcing their strategic appeal.

Aggressive bulls may consider TCOM20260116C75 into a breakout above $78.65, while TCOM20260220C80 offers a longer-term play on the stock’s upward trajectory.

Backtest Trip.com Stock Performance
The backtest of TCOM's performance following a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows a significant strategy return of 174.61%, with a benchmark return of 42.97% and an excess return of 131.64%. The strategy's CAGR is 29.36%, indicating strong growth over the period. However, the Sharpe ratio is relatively low at 0.54, suggesting moderate risk-adjusted returns. The maximum drawdown was 0.00%, which may imply that the strategy had no significant losses during the backtest period.

TCOM’s Rally Gains Legs – Watch for $78.65 Breakout and Options Volatility
Trip.com’s 2.66% intraday surge is underpinned by Citi’s bullish tourism analysis and a sector-wide rebound in travel stocks. With 10 'Buy' ratings and a 14.69% rise in short interest, the stock’s momentum appears sustainable in the near term. Investors should monitor the $78.65 52-week high as a critical resistance level, while options traders can leverage high-leverage contracts like TCOM20260116C75 for short-term gains. The sector leader Expedia’s 2.92% rise further validates the bullish outlook. For now, a breakout above $78.65 or a surge in options volatility could signal the next phase of TCOM’s rally.